Health Care·Biotechnology·$2.9B
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for skin diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, it operates in the healthcare sector, addressing significant unmet needs in dermatology.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
Revenue figures will indicate the company's ability to generate sales and reflect the success of its product offerings.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
8Q
EPS Beat Rate
100%
Avg EPS Surprise
+79.18%
Avg Stock Reaction
+2.58%
In Q4 2025, Arcutis reported an EPS of $0.13, significantly beating expectations of $0.03. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.11% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect Arcutis to report a loss, but any positive surprise could lead to a strong market reaction. The consensus is cautious given the company's recent performance.
Bull Case
If Arcutis can exceed revenue expectations and show a path toward profitability, investor sentiment could shift positively, driving the stock higher.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue targets or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.
EPS
$-0.06Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$104MRevenue figures will indicate the company's ability to generate sales and reflect the success of its product offerings.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will Arcutis achieve revenue of at least $104M?
This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to generate sales and meet market expectations.
Q2
What are the updated projections for EPS in the coming quarters?
Any positive guidance on EPS could significantly boost investor confidence and stock performance.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth due to recent product advancements that have not been fully accounted for.
Supporting Evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating stronger operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, reflecting potential investor optimism.
Recent product launches may drive higher sales than analysts expect.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in below $103M, it could significantly undermine confidence in the company's growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching how Arcutis navigates its revenue generation amid competitive pressures in the biotechnology sector.
Bull Confirmed If
Achieving revenue above $106M would confirm strong market demand for its products.
Bear Confirmed If
Revenue falling below $103M would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
Implied Move
±10.84%
Historical Avg
±5.7%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, indicating uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.8% while ARQT has averaged ±5.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
n=30Fade rate: 8 of 20 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 8 of 20 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.8%, with a raw directional average of +2.3% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Arcutis beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +2.58%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around -7.07%.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026