Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.09
EPS est.
$-0.02
EPS surprise
-429.41%
1-day move
+3.20%
Arcutis Biotherapeutics reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, missing consensus estimates. Despite this, the stock rose by 3.20%, indicating that investors may have reacted positively to other aspects of the report or broader market conditions. However, the lack of revenue figures and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's performance and future direction.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.09 | $-0.06 | -429.41% |
| Revenue | — | $104M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative treatments for skin diseases. Operating in the health care sector, its work is significant as it addresses unmet medical needs in dermatology, which can impact millions of patients.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Arcutis reported an EPS of $0.13, significantly beating expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.11% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+21.79%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.74%
Analysts expect a loss of $0.06 per share on revenues of $104 million for Q1 2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is cautious optimism about meeting these targets.
Bull case
If Arcutis can exceed revenue expectations and show a path to profitability, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, especially given its recent earnings surprises.
Bear case
If the company fails to meet revenue expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.06Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$104MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Arcutis achieve revenue of at least $104 million this quarter?
Meeting or exceeding this revenue target is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and validating the company's growth strategy.
Q2
What is the outlook for profitability in the coming quarters?
Investors will closely watch for any guidance on profitability, as it will impact future stock performance and investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Arcutis' ability to leverage recent product launches, leading to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance.
Recent insider buying suggests confidence in the company's future prospects.
Options pricing indicates a significant move, reflecting uncertainty that could swing in favor of positive results.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $106 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the bullish sentiment from recent earnings surprises or highlight ongoing challenges.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving revenue of $106 million or more would confirm strong demand for Arcutis' products.
Bear confirmed if
Falling short of $103 million in revenue would raise concerns about the company's growth trajectory.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±22.84%
Historical Avg
±5.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating uncertainty about the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±22.8% while ARQT has averaged ±5.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.6%
30d HV
50.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
108.73%
of float
Insider
1.77%
of float
Holders
387
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Montanova Capital LLC
12,437,000 sh · $300.6M
9.89%
0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Arcutis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.58%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
An in-line result may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further commentary on future growth prospects.
Miss
A miss could result in a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop in stock price, particularly if revenue falls below expectations.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
10,545,466 sh · $254.9M
8.39%
14.6%
Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P.
9,874,511 sh · $238.7M
7.86%
Flat
Rubric Capital Management LP
8,271,577 sh · $199.9M
6.58%
Flat
Polar Capital Holdings PLC
6,606,945 sh · $159.7M
5.26%
16.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded May 29, 2026 · disclosed Jun 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.