Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Est. EPS
$10.65
Est. revenue
$11.7B
Implied move
±6.9%
EPS beat rate
88%
ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, ASML's technology is crucial for producing advanced chips that power everything from smartphones to AI systems, making it a vital component in the global tech ecosystem.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, ASML reported an EPS of $8.67, exceeding expectations by 8.61%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.23% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+8.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.70%
Analysts are generally optimistic about ASML's upcoming earnings, expecting solid growth in both EPS and revenue.
Bull case
If ASML beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for its products, particularly in the AI and cloud sectors, leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses estimates or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about slowing demand in the semiconductor market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$10.65Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ASML is managing costs and revenue.
Revenue
$11.7BTotal revenue shows the company's ability to grow sales, which is essential for sustaining its market position.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ASML's EPS exceed $10.65?
A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the company's growth trajectory and ability to manage costs effectively.
Q2
What guidance will ASML provide for future revenue?
Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook in a potentially slowing semiconductor market.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±6.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating ASML's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced semiconductor technology, particularly in AI applications.
Supporting evidence
ASML's recent innovations in EUV technology could lead to higher margins than anticipated.
The options market is pricing a 6.64% move, which suggests traders expect more volatility than the historical average.
The company's strong track record of beating EPS estimates (88% in the last 8 quarters) indicates potential for upside.
Key risk
If ASML's revenue exceeds $12B, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment around semiconductor demand.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it could indicate ASML's resilience in a fluctuating semiconductor market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $10.80 or higher with revenue exceeding $12B would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $10.00 or revenue under $10.5B would signal potential weakness in demand and operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.64%
Historical Avg
±7.0%
The options market is pricing in a move of about 6.64%, suggesting that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.9% while ASML has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
38.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: 14 of 29 (48%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 14 of 29 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of -2.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
20.41%
of float
Insider
0.02%
of float
Holders
2,966
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
FMR, LLC
5,478,341 sh · $9.9B
1.41%
74.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ASML beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.67% on the first day, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious sentiment from investors.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 4.29%, indicating concerns about market demand and growth.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
4,737,614 sh · $8.6B
1.22%
3.0%
Capital World Investors
3,726,679 sh · $6.7B
0.96%
-0.2%
Invesco Ltd.
3,140,208 sh · $5.7B
0.81%
5.7%
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co
2,758,173 sh · $5.0B
0.71%
Flat
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.