Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±14.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software. The company is significant as it develops technology aimed at transforming transportation through automation, which aligns with the growing trends in artificial intelligence and smart mobility.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Aurora reported an EPS of -$0.14, missing the estimate by 2 cents. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 3.70% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-0.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.59%
Overall, expectations for Aurora's upcoming earnings are uncertain, particularly due to the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance.
Bull case
If Aurora shows improved EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in performance, attracting more investors.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss earnings expectations, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining if the company is making progress towards profitability or if losses are continuing.
Q2
How does Aurora plan to address revenue growth challenges?
Investors will be keen to hear about strategies for increasing revenue, as this will indicate the company's ability to scale and succeed in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Aurora to improve its operational efficiency, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
Historically, Aurora has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time, suggesting potential for positive surprises.
The options market indicates a significant move, which could reflect underlying investor optimism not captured in current sentiment.
Key risk
If Aurora's EPS comes in better than -$0.10, it could shift market sentiment significantly.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Aurora can show signs of financial improvement or if it will continue to struggle.
Bull confirmed if
A reduction in EPS losses to -$0.10 or better would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS losses widen beyond -$0.14, it would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.89%
Historical Avg
±4.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±14.9% while AUR has averaged ±4.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
58.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.49%
of float
Insider
10.92%
of float
Holders
569
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
299,417,414 sh · $1.7B
17.53%
2.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Aurora beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.19% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see little movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 1.16% on the first day, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Uber Technologies, Inc
258,473,411 sh · $1.5B
15.13%
-20.7%
Morgan Stanley
213,915,089 sh · $1.2B
12.52%
11.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
83,371,305 sh · $476.9M
4.88%
-6.0%
Capital Research Global Investors
83,051,619 sh · $475.1M
4.86%
0.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.