Equity Profile

AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$7.2B

Jun29Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a leading provider of small unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$1.47

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a leading provider of small unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors. With a market cap of $7 billion, the company plays a crucial role in advancing military technology and surveillance capabilities, which are increasingly important in today's security landscape.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, which was below the expected $0.68, leading to a stock decline of 2.52% the following day. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations in recent quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect AeroVironment to report an EPS of $1.47 and revenue of $559 million for Q4-2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is a mix of optimism and caution among investors.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and increased skepticism about its growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$559M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and meet market expectations.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate demand for AeroVironment's products and overall business health, influencing investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AeroVironment's earnings, as recent defense spending increases could drive demand for its products.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, the defense sector is seeing increased budgets, which could benefit AeroVironment.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are preparing for potential surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue significantly exceeds $559 million, it could shift the narrative around the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching whether AeroVironment can break its streak of earnings misses and demonstrate growth in a competitive defense sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.28 would reinforce concerns about the company's ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.68%, confirming a positive shift in market perception.

In-Line / Cautious

If the company meets expectations but provides cautious guidance, the stock may experience a muted response, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings again, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.77%, further eroding investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or government spending that could impact revenue.
2Management's commentary on product demand and market conditions.
3Insights into cost management and profitability improvements.
4Guidance on future quarters and any strategic shifts in focus.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent earnings performance.

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Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a leading provider of small unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

$1.47

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect AeroVironment to report an EPS of $1.47 and revenue of $559 million for Q4-2026. Given the company's recent performance, there is a mix of optimism and caution among investors.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in its financial performance, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and increased skepticism about its growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$559M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47?

This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and meet market expectations.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate demand for AeroVironment's products and overall business health, influencing investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in AeroVironment's earnings, as recent defense spending increases could drive demand for its products.

Supporting Evidence

Despite recent misses, the defense sector is seeing increased budgets, which could benefit AeroVironment.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are preparing for potential surprises.

Key Risk

If revenue significantly exceeds $559 million, it could shift the narrative around the company's growth potential.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching whether AeroVironment can break its streak of earnings misses and demonstrate growth in a competitive defense sector.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm a positive turnaround in earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.28 would reinforce concerns about the company's ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.68%, confirming a positive shift in market perception.

In-Line / Cautious

If the company meets expectations but provides cautious guidance, the stock may experience a muted response, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism.

Miss

Should the company miss earnings again, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.77%, further eroding investor confidence.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

2 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or government spending that could impact revenue.
2Management's commentary on product demand and market conditions.
3Insights into cost management and profitability improvements.
4Guidance on future quarters and any strategic shifts in focus.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding recent earnings performance.