Equity Profile

AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$9.7B

Jun29Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, specializing in unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

$1.47

Revenue

Revenue growth indicates demand for AeroVironment's products, which is vital for assessing the company's market position.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, specializing in unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies. As a key player in the growing drone market, it serves both military and commercial customers, making it significant in the context of increasing defense spending and technological advancements in surveillance and reconnaissance.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q3-2026), AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, falling short of the expected $0.68, which led to a slight decline in stock price. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations consistently, raising concerns among investors.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about AeroVironment's upcoming earnings, hoping for a rebound in both EPS and revenue after a series of disappointing results. Analysts are particularly focused on whether the company can deliver on its earnings forecast this quarter.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can exceed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence and potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its growth prospects and lead to a more substantial decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

Revenue

$559M

Revenue growth indicates demand for AeroVironment's products, which is vital for assessing the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47 this quarter?

Achieving or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after several disappointing quarters.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $559M consensus?

Revenue performance will provide insights into demand for AeroVironment's products and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly cautious given the potential for a rebound in demand for AeroVironment's products, especially in defense applications.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 20.81% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent history of earnings misses may have led to an overly pessimistic outlook that doesn't account for potential recovery.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $1.47, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are critical as they will either validate the company's recovery narrative or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.47 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $559M, would confirm a positive turnaround for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $1.47 or revenue falling short of $559M would reinforce concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the upcoming results.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.68%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -0.77%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue growth.
2Insights into production capabilities and supply chain stability.
3Management's outlook on future demand for drone technology in both military and commercial sectors.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.

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Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, specializing in unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

$1.47

Revenue

Revenue growth indicates demand for AeroVironment's products, which is vital for assessing the company's market position.

$559M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise further doubts about its growth prospects and lead to a more substantial decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.47

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability, and investors will be looking for signs of recovery after recent misses.

Revenue

$559M

Revenue growth indicates demand for AeroVironment's products, which is vital for assessing the company's market position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment achieve an EPS of at least $1.47 this quarter?

Achieving or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after several disappointing quarters.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the $559M consensus?

Revenue performance will provide insights into demand for AeroVironment's products and overall market health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be overly cautious given the potential for a rebound in demand for AeroVironment's products, especially in defense applications.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 20.81% move, indicating significant expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The company's recent history of earnings misses may have led to an overly pessimistic outlook that doesn't account for potential recovery.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in above $1.47, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are critical as they will either validate the company's recovery narrative or highlight ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.47 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $559M, would confirm a positive turnaround for the company.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS significantly below $1.47 or revenue falling short of $559M would reinforce concerns about the company's growth trajectory.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the upcoming results.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.68%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in management's commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -0.77%, further eroding investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new contracts or partnerships that could drive revenue growth.
2Insights into production capabilities and supply chain stability.
3Management's outlook on future demand for drone technology in both military and commercial sectors.
4Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.