Equity Profile

AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & Defense$9.4B

Jun29Mon

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company that specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.68

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive aerospace and defense industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company that specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a crucial role in providing advanced technology solutions for military and commercial applications.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, missing expectations by 5.88%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing defense contracts.
Commitment to innovation in unmanned systems.
Plans to improve operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent history of missing EPS estimates. Analysts are looking for signs of recovery in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on EPS and lack of significant revenue growth could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.68

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive aerospace and defense industry.

Defense Contracts

N/A

The number and value of defense contracts can significantly impact AeroVironment's revenue and future growth prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment's EPS exceed $0.68 this quarter?

A beat on EPS would indicate a potential turnaround in profitability after recent misses, which could positively impact investor sentiment.

What is the outlook on new defense contracts?

The ability to secure new contracts is critical for future revenue growth and overall business stability in the defense sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AeroVironment's potential for new defense contracts, which could drive revenue growth beyond current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider selling may not reflect overall confidence in the company's future prospects.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility and potential positive news.

The company has a history of bouncing back after misses, which could be overlooked by the market.

Key Risk

If new defense contracts exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AeroVironment can recover from its recent earnings misses and secure new business in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Exceeding $0.68 in EPS and securing significant new defense contracts would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.68 and lack of new contracts would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.5%, with a raw directional average of +1.3% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$49,322.50

250 sh

1 insider

Net

$49,322.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats EPS expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.68% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 0.77%, as seen in past quarters, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$3,003.00–$45,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new defense contracts and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any guidance on future EPS expectations.
3Details about operational improvements and cost management strategies.
4Insights into market demand for unmanned systems.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning in the aerospace and defense sector.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company that specializes in unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.68

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive aerospace and defense industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AVAV Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-5.96%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.22%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.64, missing expectations by 5.88%. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 2.52% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on increasing defense contracts.
Commitment to innovation in unmanned systems.
Plans to improve operational efficiency.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautious ahead of the earnings report, given the company's recent history of missing EPS estimates. Analysts are looking for signs of recovery in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If AeroVironment can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued misses on EPS and lack of significant revenue growth could lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.68

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and capture market share, which is vital in the competitive aerospace and defense industry.

Defense Contracts

N/A

The number and value of defense contracts can significantly impact AeroVironment's revenue and future growth prospects.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will AeroVironment's EPS exceed $0.68 this quarter?

A beat on EPS would indicate a potential turnaround in profitability after recent misses, which could positively impact investor sentiment.

What is the outlook on new defense contracts?

The ability to secure new contracts is critical for future revenue growth and overall business stability in the defense sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AeroVironment's potential for new defense contracts, which could drive revenue growth beyond current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Recent insider selling may not reflect overall confidence in the company's future prospects.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility and potential positive news.

The company has a history of bouncing back after misses, which could be overlooked by the market.

Key Risk

If new defense contracts exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether AeroVironment can recover from its recent earnings misses and secure new business in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Exceeding $0.68 in EPS and securing significant new defense contracts would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.68 and lack of new contracts would reinforce the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±20.81%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±20.8% while AVAV has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

78.8%

Calls (1.9M)P/C Ratio: 0.50Puts (480K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$49,322.50

250 sh

1 insider

Net

$49,322.50

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AeroVironment beats EPS expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.68% on the day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 0.77%, as seen in past quarters, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

3 buys·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$3,003.00–$45,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
3

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new defense contracts and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any guidance on future EPS expectations.
3Details about operational improvements and cost management strategies.
4Insights into market demand for unmanned systems.
5Management's perspective on competitive positioning in the aerospace and defense sector.