Equity Profile

NKE

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryFootwear$61.2B

Jun30Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

NIKE, Inc. is a leading global designer and manufacturer of athletic footwear and apparel....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth, which is crucial for assessing market demand.

$10.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NKE Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

NIKE, Inc. is a leading global designer and manufacturer of athletic footwear and apparel. As a major player in the consumer discretionary sector, NIKE is influenced by trends in consumer spending and brand loyalty, making its performance relevant to investors and the broader retail market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+45.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, NIKE reported an EPS of $0.35, exceeding expectations by 20.69%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NIKE to report a modest EPS and revenue growth this quarter, reflecting ongoing consumer demand.

Bull Case

If NIKE exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal strong brand loyalty and effective cost management, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if NIKE misses expectations, it may indicate weakening consumer demand or increased competition, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.13

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$10.8B

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth, which is crucial for assessing market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NIKE's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.13?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, which are critical for investor confidence.

What will be the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $10.8B?

Revenue performance is essential to understanding market demand and growth potential, impacting future guidance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NIKE's ability to maintain margins despite rising costs, as historical data shows consistent EPS beats.

Supporting Evidence

NIKE has a strong track record of exceeding EPS estimates, with a 100% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened investor expectations.

Recent consumer spending trends show resilience in the athletic apparel sector, which could benefit NIKE.

Key Risk

If revenue falls below $10.7B, it could challenge the positive sentiment around NIKE's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects both consumer spending trends and NIKE's ability to navigate market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with sales or market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.28%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while NKE has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

26.8%

Calls (10.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.21Puts (3.0M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NIKE beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.75%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a negative reaction, averaging around -0.75%, indicating potential concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in North America and internationally.
2Insights into supply chain management and cost control measures.
3Comments on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market expansion plans.
5Any commentary on competition and market positioning.

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Company Snapshot

NIKE, Inc. is a leading global designer and manufacturer of athletic footwear and apparel....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth, which is crucial for assessing market demand.

$10.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

NKE Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+45.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, NIKE reported an EPS of $0.35, exceeding expectations by 20.69%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NIKE to report a modest EPS and revenue growth this quarter, reflecting ongoing consumer demand.

Bull Case

If NIKE exceeds the EPS estimate, it could signal strong brand loyalty and effective cost management, potentially leading to a stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if NIKE misses expectations, it may indicate weakening consumer demand or increased competition, which could negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.13

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.

Revenue

$10.8B

Revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth, which is crucial for assessing market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will NIKE's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.13?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational efficiency and consumer demand, which are critical for investor confidence.

What will be the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $10.8B?

Revenue performance is essential to understanding market demand and growth potential, impacting future guidance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate NIKE's ability to maintain margins despite rising costs, as historical data shows consistent EPS beats.

Supporting Evidence

NIKE has a strong track record of exceeding EPS estimates, with a 100% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened investor expectations.

Recent consumer spending trends show resilience in the athletic apparel sector, which could benefit NIKE.

Key Risk

If revenue falls below $10.7B, it could challenge the positive sentiment around NIKE's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it reflects both consumer spending trends and NIKE's ability to navigate market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong demand and cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.10 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with sales or market competitiveness.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.28%

Historical Avg

±1.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.3% while NKE has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

26.8%

Calls (10.8M)P/C Ratio: 0.21Puts (3.0M)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NIKE beats expectations, history suggests a positive stock reaction of around +0.75%, confirming strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a negative reaction, averaging around -0.75%, indicating potential concerns about future growth.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in North America and internationally.
2Insights into supply chain management and cost control measures.
3Comments on new product launches and their expected impact on sales.
4Guidance on future revenue growth and market expansion plans.
5Any commentary on competition and market positioning.