Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 13, 2026
EPS actual
$-1.78
EPS est.
$0.09
EPS surprise
-2013.98%
1-day move
+11.57%
Despite a significant miss on EPS, Bullish's stock rose by 11.57% following the earnings report. The increase in revenue, particularly from subscription services, and the anticipated acquisition of Equiniti seem to have positively influenced investor sentiment. The company is navigating a tough crypto market but is expanding its institutional partnerships, which could bode well for future growth.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.78 | $0.17 | -2013.98% |
| Revenue | $92.6M | $88M | +5.5% |
| SSNO Revenue | $62.7M | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed cautious optimism about future growth, particularly with the upcoming Equiniti acquisition. They noted the challenges in the crypto market but highlighted the growth in subscription and services revenue.
The Equiniti acquisition is expected to enhance our position in issuer-sponsored tokenization.
Trading volumes moderated in Q2 due to a challenging crypto market, but institutional partnerships are expanding.
Bullish (BLSH) operates in the financial sector, specifically focusing on financial exchanges and data. With a market cap of $4 billion, it plays a crucial role in facilitating trading and data analytics, which are essential for investors and traders in today's fast-paced market environment.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Bullish reported a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$3.85, far below the expected $0.17. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 5.62% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
20%
Avg EPS surprise
-1453.90%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.06%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Bullish's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company's recent performance raises concerns about its ability to meet these expectations.
Bull case
If Bullish can deliver on its EPS and revenue estimates, it may signal a turnaround and restore investor confidence, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet its targets again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and heightened skepticism about its future prospects.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.17Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$88MTotal revenue provides insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Bullish achieve an EPS of at least $0.17 this quarter?
Given the significant earnings misses in previous quarters, achieving this target is crucial for restoring investor confidence.
Q2
What factors contributed to the expected revenue of $88M?
Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help assess the company's growth potential and market demand.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in Bullish's earnings, given the significant adjustments made in their operational strategies.
Supporting evidence
The stock has historically shown resilience after earnings misses, with some recoveries in subsequent quarters.
Options pricing indicates a higher expected volatility, suggesting that traders are anticipating a significant move, which could favor a positive surprise.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in above $0.17, it could challenge the prevailing bearish sentiment and lead to a stock rebound.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of disappointing results, and the market is keenly watching for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.17 or better would confirm the bull case and suggest a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.17 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial health and lead to further stock declines.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±32.25%
Historical Avg
±7.0%
The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that investors are anticipating significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±32.2% while BLSH has averaged ±7.0% over the last 5 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
72.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.5%, with a raw directional average of +0.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$4,010.00
100 sh
1 insider
Net
$4,010.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
History suggests that if Bullish beats expectations, the stock could see a modest increase of around 5.88% on the following day, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
Should the company miss its targets again, history indicates a potential drop of around 7.04%, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$4,010.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $40.10
100 sh
$4,010.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.