Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±7.3%
EPS beat rate
88%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is a leading pharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and delivering innovative medicines for serious diseases. Operating in the Health Care sector, BMY plays a crucial role in advancing treatments for cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and immunological conditions, making it significant in the ongoing healthcare landscape.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb reported an EPS of $2.04, significantly exceeding expectations by 28.14%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.79% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.41%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.87%
Analysts are generally optimistic about Bristol-Myers Squibb's upcoming earnings, especially given their strong performance in previous quarters. However, the lack of specific guidance may lead to uncertainty.
Bull case
If the company continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could result in a significant drop in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor sentiment.
Q2
What guidance will management provide for future revenue growth?
Future revenue guidance will help investors assess the company's growth trajectory and market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Bristol-Myers Squibb to exceed EPS expectations based on its recent performance trends.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
The strong performance in Q2 2026 could set a positive tone for Q3.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $1.80, it could challenge the current bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the company's growth narrative or raise concerns about its future prospects.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.10 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth potential.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.80 could signal underlying issues in revenue generation and market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.34%
Historical Avg
±4.3%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.3% while BMY has averaged ±4.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
20.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.89%
of float
Insider
0.10%
of float
Holders
3,258
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
180,384,994 sh · $10.8B
8.83%
5.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Bristol-Myers Squibb beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.97%, confirming a strong growth outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may react moderately, reflecting investor uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 5.81%, indicating potential concerns about the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
133,337,856 sh · $8.0B
6.53%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
102,408,940 sh · $6.1B
5.01%
3.9%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
71,713,442 sh · $4.3B
3.51%
-22.4%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
67,595,177 sh · $4.0B
3.31%
10.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded May 7, 2026 · disclosed Jun 11, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.