Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.27
EPS est.
$-0.01
EPS surprise
-2600.00%
1-day move
-5.73%
Peabody Energy's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, with the company reporting a loss instead of the expected profit. This disappointing performance likely contributed to the stock's decline of 5.73% in reaction to the news. Investors may be concerned about the company's financial health given the lack of revenue data and guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.27 | $0.10 | -2600.00% |
| Revenue | — | $967M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, Peabody's role in the coal industry remains significant, especially in regions where coal is still a primary energy source.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Peabody reported an EPS of $0.09, slightly below expectations, resulting in a stock decline of 2.20% the following day. The company has faced challenges in meeting analyst estimates consistently.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-632.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.37%
Analysts expect a modest recovery in earnings with a consensus EPS of $0.10 for Q1-2026, indicating cautious optimism. Revenue expectations are set at $967 million, reflecting steady demand.
Bull case
If Peabody can exceed the EPS estimate, it may signal improved operational efficiency and stronger market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its ability to navigate market challenges, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.10Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$967MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for coal.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Peabody's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.10?
A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational improvements, which the market is keen to see after recent misses.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the $967 million consensus?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding market demand and the company's sales trajectory, especially in a fluctuating energy market.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in coal demand, especially in regions where coal remains a primary energy source.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.
Despite recent misses, Peabody's operational adjustments could lead to improved margins and profitability.
The coal market may be stabilizing, which could positively impact Peabody's revenue and earnings.
Key risk
If Peabody reports an EPS above $0.12, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Peabody can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate stronger financial health.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.12 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating better-than-expected profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.05 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.21%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.6% while BTU has averaged ±6.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.0%
30d HV
64.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.75%
of float
Insider
0.99%
of float
Holders
433
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
18,844,773 sh · $468.3M
15.47%
5.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.91%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.05%, reinforcing concerns about the company's ability to meet market challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
11,126,764 sh · $276.5M
9.14%
7.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,157,317 sh · $202.7M
6.70%
-10.8%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,337,778 sh · $157.5M
5.20%
1.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,492,213 sh · $136.5M
4.51%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.