Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±10.9%
EPS beat rate
25%
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading coal producer in the energy sector, focusing on the extraction and sale of coal for electricity generation and steel production. As the world continues to navigate energy needs and environmental concerns, Peabody's role in the coal industry remains significant, especially amid fluctuating energy prices and demand for cleaner alternatives.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Peabody reported an EPS of -$0.74, significantly missing estimates, which led to a 10.41% drop in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in a volatile market.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-632.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.37%
Investors are cautious ahead of Peabody's Q3 earnings, especially after consecutive earnings misses in previous quarters. The market is looking for signs of recovery or improvement in performance.
Bull case
If Peabody can show a turnaround in earnings and improved revenue, it could signal a recovery in the coal market, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued losses and poor performance could reinforce negative sentiment, leading to further declines in stock price and investor trust.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given the recent history of significant misses, the EPS figure will be critical for assessing whether Peabody is making progress in stabilizing its financial performance.
Q2
How has revenue been impacted by market conditions?
Understanding revenue trends will provide insight into the company's operational health and its ability to navigate a challenging energy landscape.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a recovery in coal prices, which could positively impact Peabody's earnings more than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing in an 11.01% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.
The recent history of earnings misses may have led to overly pessimistic forecasts, creating a potential opportunity for a surprise.
The coal market has shown signs of stabilization, which could benefit Peabody more than analysts expect.
Key risk
If Peabody's EPS comes in better than -$0.50, it could challenge the prevailing negative sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Peabody can recover from its recent earnings struggles and improve its financial outlook.
Bull confirmed if
A positive EPS of $0.10 or better would confirm a bullish turnaround.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss exceeding -$0.50 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.01%
Historical Avg
±6.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.9% while BTU has averaged ±6.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
51.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.75%
of float
Insider
0.99%
of float
Holders
433
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
18,844,773 sh · $468.3M
15.47%
5.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Peabody beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.97%, confirming a positive shift in momentum.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 4.48%, further damaging investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
11,126,764 sh · $276.5M
9.14%
7.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,157,317 sh · $202.7M
6.70%
-10.8%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,337,778 sh · $157.5M
5.20%
1.7%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,492,213 sh · $136.5M
4.51%
0.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.