Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.2%
EPS beat rate
100%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) is a food distributor that supplies high-quality ingredients to restaurants and chefs across the U.S. and Canada. As a player in the consumer staples sector, it benefits from ongoing trends in food service and dining, which remain strong despite economic fluctuations.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, The Chefs' Warehouse reported an EPS of $0.78, exceeding expectations by nearly 23%. The stock reacted positively, gaining over 5% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+20.85%
Avg 1-day reaction
+6.01%
Investors are generally optimistic about The Chefs' Warehouse's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates in recent quarters.
Bull case
If the company continues its trend of exceeding EPS estimates, it could see a significant stock price increase, especially if revenue growth is also strong.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing growth, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock price, given the high expectations set by previous performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3 2026?
Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?
Investors will closely watch revenue growth as a sign of the company's ability to expand and adapt in a competitive market.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for The Chefs' Warehouse to exceed revenue expectations due to strong demand in the food service sector.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting market uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.
Historical trends show that the company has a strong track record of positive stock reactions following earnings beats.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether The Chefs' Warehouse can maintain its strong performance in a competitive landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.85 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.60 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.16%
Historical Avg
±7.7%
The options market is pricing in an 8.16% move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility following the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.2% while CHEF has averaged ±7.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
35.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.58%
of float
Insider
10.13%
of float
Holders
414
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,039,964 sh · $670.5M
14.81%
4.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If The Chefs' Warehouse beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6% on the following day, confirming ongoing strength.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a decline of around 6% on the following day, indicating disappointment among investors.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Wellington Management Group, LLP
2,390,951 sh · $265.4M
5.86%
-29.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,621,521 sh · $180.0M
3.97%
0.2%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
1,557,862 sh · $172.9M
3.82%
-17.3%
State Street Corporation
1,507,277 sh · $167.3M
3.69%
6.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.