Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$16.7B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in this industry, the company's performance can be influenced by global oil prices, refining margins, and demand for fuel products.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact profitability in the oil and gas sector, reflecting the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of refined products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are anticipating another strong performance from HF Sinclair, especially after the substantial EPS surprise last quarter. However, concerns about refining margins and oil price volatility may temper enthusiasm.

Bull Case

If HF Sinclair continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins, it could lead to a strong stock performance and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to maintain its previous momentum or if refining margins decline, it could result in a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any guidance on this metric will be closely watched by investors.

How does management view the impact of current oil prices on future earnings?

Given the volatility in oil prices, insights into management's outlook will help investors gauge potential risks and opportunities.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to remain strong despite oil price fluctuations. HF Sinclair's operational efficiency could provide a buffer against market volatility.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant stock movement.

The recent positive stock reaction following earnings surprises suggests a bullish sentiment among investors.

Key Risk

If refining margins come in below $15 per barrel, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins in the face of fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin above $20 per barrel would confirm the bull case and suggest strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in refining margins below $15 per barrel would support the bear case and raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +3.81%, confirming strong market confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -1.14%, which could raise concerns about operational efficiency.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Management's outlook on refining margins for the next quarter.
2Any commentary on the impact of oil price fluctuations on profitability.
3Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Insights into demand trends for refined products.
5Any guidance on capital expenditures or expansion plans.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Refining Margins

Refining margins directly impact profitability in the oil and gas sector, reflecting the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of refined products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If HF Sinclair continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins, it could lead to a strong stock performance and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to maintain its previous momentum or if refining margins decline, it could result in a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the expected refining margins for the upcoming quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any guidance on this metric will be closely watched by investors.

How does management view the impact of current oil prices on future earnings?

Given the volatility in oil prices, insights into management's outlook will help investors gauge potential risks and opportunities.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management performance.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant stock movement.

The recent positive stock reaction following earnings surprises suggests a bullish sentiment among investors.

Key Risk

If refining margins come in below $15 per barrel, it could undermine the bullish narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the sustainability of refining margins in the face of fluctuating oil prices.

Bull Confirmed If

A refining margin above $20 per barrel would confirm the bull case and suggest strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in refining margins below $15 per barrel would support the bear case and raise concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +3.81%, confirming strong market confidence.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line result may lead to a muted reaction, as investors weigh management's commentary on future prospects.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -1.14%, which could raise concerns about operational efficiency.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

R-LAJulia LetlowRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Management's outlook on refining margins for the next quarter.
2Any commentary on the impact of oil price fluctuations on profitability.
3Updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
4Insights into demand trends for refined products.
5Any guidance on capital expenditures or expansion plans.