Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$5.31
EPS est.
$4.39
EPS surprise
+21.04%
1-day move
-1.63%
HF Sinclair Corporation reported a strong earnings per share, beating expectations significantly. However, the stock fell by 1.63% following the announcement, indicating that investors may have been looking for more comprehensive details or guidance that was not provided. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary may have contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.31 | N/A | +21.04% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, primarily focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in the energy market, it plays a crucial role in fuel supply and pricing, which can be influenced by global oil demand and geopolitical factors.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly exceeding expectations. This marked a remarkable 2555% surprise, indicating strong operational performance.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+367.63%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.65%
Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has shown strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, but revenue figures remain uncertain. Investors are keen to see if DINO can maintain its momentum.
Bull case
If the company continues to deliver strong earnings and improves its revenue growth, it could signal robust operational efficiency and market demand, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
On the other hand, if earnings fall short or if refining margins decline due to increased costs or lower demand, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$3.56EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health. Investors will be looking for strong earnings to gauge performance.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is vital in the competitive energy sector.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?
The market will closely watch EPS as a key indicator of profitability, especially following the significant surprise in the last quarter.
Q2
How are refining margins expected to trend in the upcoming quarter?
Refining margins are critical for profitability in the oil and gas sector, and any guidance on this will be pivotal for investor sentiment.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for DINO to exceed EPS expectations again, given the recent strong performance and potential for improved refining margins.
Supporting evidence
DINO has consistently surprised on EPS, with an 88% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility which could favor a positive outcome.
The company's operational efficiency improvements may not be fully reflected in current consensus estimates.
Key risk
If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to a substantial upward revision in earnings expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether HF Sinclair can maintain its strong earnings performance amid fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating sustained profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.00 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.74%
Historical Avg
±3.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
40.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy
Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
90.18%
of float
Insider
5.49%
of float
Holders
907
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
18,544,173 sh · $2.1B
10.43%
-0.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If DINO beats earnings expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average one-day move of +3.81%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential downside of -1.14%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Refining Margins
N/ARefining margins indicate how much profit the company makes from turning crude oil into gasoline and other products, which is essential for assessing operational efficiency.
TCTC Holdings, LLC
12,330,782 sh · $1.4B
6.94%
Flat
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
9,532,887 sh · $1.1B
5.36%
3.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,856,765 sh · $1.0B
4.98%
-2.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
6,906,593 sh · $798.6M
3.88%
-1.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.