Equity Profile

DINO

HF Sinclair Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$16.3B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. As a significant player in this industry, the company's performance can be influenced by fluctuating oil prices, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer demand for energy products.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly surpassing expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are optimistic about HF Sinclair's upcoming earnings, especially after a strong performance last quarter. However, there are concerns about potential volatility in oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining refining margins or unexpected costs could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices?

Management's perspective on oil prices can provide insights into future earnings and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to remain strong despite volatile oil prices, as HF Sinclair has historically managed costs effectively.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect uncertainty that could be overblown.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to maintain strong refining margins in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect notable volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 23 of 30 (77%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.6% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.81%, confirming the bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted response.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 1.14%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining capacity expansions or improvements.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on operations.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into market demand for refined products.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts affecting the refining sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share in a competitive environment.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

DINO Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+366.14%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.79%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, HF Sinclair reported an impressive EPS of $3.56, significantly surpassing expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.92% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company continues to outperform expectations, particularly in refining margins and overall profitability, it could see significant stock price appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, any signs of declining refining margins or unexpected costs could lead to a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the refining margins be for this quarter?

Refining margins are crucial for profitability, and any significant changes could impact investor sentiment.

How does management view the outlook for oil prices?

Management's perspective on oil prices can provide insights into future earnings and operational strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for refining margins to remain strong despite volatile oil prices, as HF Sinclair has historically managed costs effectively.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting stronger operational performance than anticipated.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect uncertainty that could be overblown.

Key Risk

If refining margins exceed $15 per barrel, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to maintain strong refining margins in a fluctuating oil market.

Bull Confirmed If

Refining margins exceeding $15 per barrel would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

Refining margins falling below $10 per barrel would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.74%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect notable volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±18.7% while DINO has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

40.1%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 7 of 30 (23%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If HF Sinclair beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.81%, confirming the bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted response.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 1.14%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining capacity expansions or improvements.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends and their impact on operations.
3Details on cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Insights into market demand for refined products.
5Any commentary on regulatory impacts affecting the refining sector.