Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.09
EPS est.
$0.07
EPS surprise
+20.00%
1-day move
+1.88%
DraftKings' strong EPS beat indicates effective cost management and growth in customer acquisition, which helped drive the stock up by 1.88%. The reaffirmation of revenue guidance suggests stability and confidence in their business model. The significant increase in customer engagement with new offerings also points to potential for future growth.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.09 | N/A | +20.00% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $115 million | N/A | N/A |
| Customer Acquisition Growth | 75% | N/A | N/A |
| Customer Acquisition Cost Improvement | 25% | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in their growth trajectory, highlighting strong customer acquisition and improved cost management. They reaffirmed their revenue and EBITDA guidance for the year.
The company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5-$6.9 billion.
Customer acquisition costs improved significantly, reflecting our focus on efficiency.
DraftKings Inc. is a leading online gaming and sports betting company in the consumer discretionary sector. With a market cap of $13 billion, it plays a significant role in the growing trend of legalized sports betting and online gaming, which has gained traction in recent years as more states in the U.S. legalize these activities.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, DraftKings reported an EPS of $0.20, significantly beating expectations of $0.07, which resulted in a 5.43% increase in stock price the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+231.26%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.28%
Overall, expectations are mixed as DraftKings has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, but revenue guidance remains unclear. Investors are keen to see if this trend continues amid increasing competition.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on continued user growth and strong engagement, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue and profits. If DraftKings can demonstrate solid active user numbers, it may boost investor confidence.
Bear case
On the downside, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of slowing user growth, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price. Increased competition in the gaming sector could also weigh on performance.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the reported revenue for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's growth trajectory and ability to capture market share in a competitive environment.
Q2
How many active users does DraftKings have, and what is the growth rate compared to last quarter?
Active user metrics are crucial for understanding customer engagement and retention, which are key drivers of revenue.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±27.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate DraftKings' ability to maintain user growth despite rising competition, as historical performance shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates.
Supporting evidence
DraftKings has a 100% EPS beat rate in the last eight quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market pricing a 9.67% move suggests that investors expect significant volatility, which may not align with a cautious consensus.
Key risk
If active user growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will indicate whether DraftKings can maintain its growth momentum amid increasing competition.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue growth rate of over 20% year-over-year would confirm the bull case and indicate strong market demand.
Bear confirmed if
If revenue growth falls below 10%, it would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about market saturation.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.67%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 10%, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.7% while DKNG has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
40.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
82.95%
of float
Insider
8.62%
of float
Holders
870
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
CIBC Bancorp USA Inc.
37,316,338 sh · $714.6M
7.52%
205.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If DraftKings beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.55%, confirming strong growth and investor confidence.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.62%, raising concerns about future growth.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
AQR Capital Management, LLC
29,668,081 sh · $568.1M
5.98%
29.8%
Jupiter Topco LLC
25,274,243 sh · $484.0M
5.09%
100.0%
Capital World Investors
24,798,304 sh · $474.9M
5.00%
0.3%
Blackrock Inc.
22,955,769 sh · $439.6M
4.62%
-13.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.