Industrials·Trading Companies & Distributors·$2.4B
DNOW Inc is a trading company and distributor in the industrial sector, focusing on providing products and services to the energy and industrial markets. With a market cap of $2 billion, the company plays a crucial role in supply chain management, especially as global industries recover and demand for industrial products fluctuates.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
6Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.68%
Avg Stock Reaction
-3.82%
In Q4 2025, DNOW reported an EPS of $0.15, surpassing expectations by 25%. However, the stock fell 19.13% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the positive earnings surprise.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect DNOW to report modest earnings and revenue growth this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.06 and revenue of $1.1 billion. The market will be closely watching for any signs of stronger demand in the industrial sector.
Bull Case
If DNOW exceeds the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal a robust recovery in the industrial sector, leading to increased investor confidence and a potential stock price rally.
Bear Case
Conversely, if DNOW fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the industrial market, leading to further declines in stock price.
EPS
$0.06Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$1.1BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will DNOW's revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $1.1 billion?
Revenue performance is critical to assess the company's growth and demand in the industrial sector, which could influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What commentary will management provide regarding market demand and pricing trends?
Insights into market conditions and pricing strategies will help investors understand the company's competitive positioning and future outlook.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for DNOW to capitalize on recovering industrial demand, particularly if management provides strong commentary on pricing power.
Supporting Evidence
Options are pricing a 6.72% move but the stock has averaged 8.84% over the last 8 quarters, suggesting a potential undervaluation of volatility.
The company's recent earnings surprises indicate a pattern of exceeding expectations, which could repeat this quarter.
Key Risk
If revenue comes in below $1 billion, it could undermine the bullish narrative of recovery in the industrial sector.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether DNOW can capitalize on improving market conditions or if it will continue to face headwinds.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.09 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $1.2 billion, would confirm a strong recovery narrative.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.04 and revenue below $940 million would indicate ongoing challenges in the market.
Implied Move
±6.72%
Historical Avg
±8.84%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 6.72% in either direction following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing a 6.72% move, while the stock has averaged an 8.84% move historically, indicating a potentially undervalued setup.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options cheap in Industrials
n=30Fade rate: 2 of 4 (50%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 2 of 4 faded and 2 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If DNOW beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock rally, with an average 1-day move of -2.57% after a beat.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should DNOW miss estimates, the average 1-day move is -7.55%, indicating significant downside risk.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026