Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. revenue
$2.4B
Implied move
±5.8%
EPS beat rate
25%
Fastenal Company is a leading distributor of industrial and construction supplies, operating in the industrials sector. With a market cap of $57 billion, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain, providing products that support various industries, including manufacturing and construction.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, Fastenal reported an EPS of $0.33, matching analyst expectations. However, the stock declined by 2.78% the following day, indicating market concerns despite meeting earnings forecasts.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-6.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.32%
Analysts expect Fastenal to report stable earnings with a consensus EPS of $0.34 and revenue of $2.4 billion. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the current economic climate.
Bull case
If Fastenal exceeds expectations with strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand in the industrial sector, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings or revenue targets, it may signal underlying weaknesses in demand or operational challenges, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.34Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$2.4BRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to increase sales and market share, which is vital for future growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Fastenal's revenue exceed the $2.4 billion consensus estimate?
A revenue beat would indicate strong demand and operational efficiency, which could positively impact the stock price.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future growth and market conditions?
Management's outlook can significantly influence investor sentiment and expectations for the upcoming quarters.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±7.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Fastenal's ability to capitalize on recent industrial demand trends, especially if they report stronger-than-expected revenue.
Supporting evidence
Fastenal's historical performance shows a tendency to outperform in strong market conditions.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $2.4 billion, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus is on revenue growth and management's guidance, which will be critical in shaping market sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue growth exceeding $2.5 billion would confirm strong market demand and operational success.
Bear confirmed if
Revenue falling below $2.4 billion would raise concerns about demand weakness and operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.84%
Historical Avg
±5.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the results.
Options are pricing ±5.8% while FAST has averaged ±5.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
18.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
87.32%
of float
Insider
0.09%
of float
Holders
1,930
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
106,297,179 sh · $5.3B
9.26%
1.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Fastenal beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.63% on the following day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement.
Miss
If the company misses earnings or revenue targets, history suggests a potential decline of about 0.99% in the stock price.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
74,919,565 sh · $3.7B
6.53%
0.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
64,893,489 sh · $3.2B
5.66%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
56,438,968 sh · $2.8B
4.92%
1.6%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
42,893,434 sh · $2.1B
3.74%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.