Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Jul 24, 2026
EPS actual
$0.60
EPS est.
$0.60
EPS surprise
+0.00%
1-day move
-1.88%
First Hawaiian, Inc. is a regional bank that provides various financial services, including personal and commercial banking. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in Hawaii and the Pacific Islands.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, First Hawaiian reported an EPS of $0.55, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock experienced a decline of 2.04% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.22%
Investors are cautiously optimistic about First Hawaiian's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If First Hawaiian continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a positive reaction from the market, especially if loan growth is strong.
Bear case
On the other hand, any signs of slowing loan growth or declining net interest margins could lead to a negative reaction, especially given the high implied volatility in the options market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected loan growth rate for Q2 2026?
Loan growth is critical for revenue generation, and any slowdown could signal broader economic issues.
Q2
How is the net interest margin trending compared to previous quarters?
A declining net interest margin could indicate challenges in profitability, which investors will be keenly watching.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±22.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the potential for loan growth, given recent economic stability in the region, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
First Hawaiian has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, suggesting a strong operational performance.
The implied volatility in options indicates that the market is pricing in significant movement, which could suggest a surprise.
Recent economic indicators in Hawaii show resilience, which could support loan demand.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly alter the market's perception of the bank's growth potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating the bank's ability to sustain growth in a potentially challenging economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
Loan growth of +5% or better with net interest margin holding above 3.5%.
Bear confirmed if
Loan growth below 2% or net interest margin dropping below 3%.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±22.65%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±22.6% while FHB has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
21.0%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
113.56%
of float
Insider
0.73%
of float
Holders
492
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
16,517,775 sh · $407.0M
13.57%
1.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If First Hawaiian beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.94% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.
Miss
If the bank misses expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 0.0% on the first day, but could worsen in the following days.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
11,542,827 sh · $284.4M
9.49%
-6.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,720,469 sh · $214.9M
7.17%
1.2%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
6,924,733 sh · $170.6M
5.69%
3.5%
State Street Corporation
6,850,458 sh · $168.8M
5.63%
5.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.