Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 11, 2026
EPS actual
$0.41
EPS est.
$0.44
EPS surprise
-6.82%
1-day move
-0.74%
FS KKR Capital Corp. reported earnings that fell short of expectations for EPS, which may raise concerns among investors. Despite the EPS miss, the stock reacted by remaining unchanged, indicating that investors may have already priced in the disappointing results. The lack of revenue data and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's performance and future outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.41 | $0.44 | -6.82% |
| Revenue | — | $315M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
FS KKR Capital Corp. is a financial services company focused on asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a significant role in managing investments and providing financial solutions, which is crucial in today's fluctuating economic landscape.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, FS KKR reported an EPS of $0.48, which was below the expected $0.55, resulting in a 1.52% increase in stock price the following day. The company continues to navigate a challenging financial environment.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+25.31%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.98%
Analysts expect FS KKR to report an EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $315 million for Q1-2026. The market is keenly watching how the company performs against these expectations given its recent earnings history.
Bull case
If FS KKR beats expectations, it could signal strong management and investment strategies, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and a rise in stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its targets again, it may raise concerns about its ability to manage assets effectively, leading to a decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.44Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.
Revenue
$315MRevenue figures provide insight into the overall business performance and demand for FS KKR's services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will FS KKR achieve an EPS of at least $0.44?
This figure is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and ability to meet market expectations.
Q2
How will revenue compare to the consensus estimate of $315 million?
Revenue performance will indicate the demand for FS KKR's services and overall business health.
—
Est. EPS
$0.42
Est. Rev
$471M
Impl. Move
±1.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating FS KKR's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, as the company has a history of strong performance following disappointing quarters.
Supporting evidence
The company has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time historically, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect volatility and potential upside.
Key risk
If FS KKR achieves an EPS above $0.45, it could significantly shift market sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny due to recent earnings misses and the implications for future growth.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.44 would reinforce concerns about the company's financial management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.75%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±6.8% while FSK has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
38.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 8 of 24 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 16 of 24 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.0%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
41.63%
of float
Insider
0.19%
of float
Holders
505
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Oak Hill Advisors, L.P.
11,371,693 sh · $122.2M
4.12%
26.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If FS KKR beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.4%, confirming positive investor sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data suggesting an average drop of 0.49%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
UBS Group AG
5,760,510 sh · $61.9M
2.08%
-0.6%
Van Eck Associates Corporation
5,382,748 sh · $57.9M
1.95%
13.4%
Victory Capital Management Inc.
5,032,014 sh · $54.1M
1.82%
235.8%
LPL Financial LLC
4,868,176 sh · $52.3M
1.76%
10.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.