Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, May 7, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±5.3%
EPS beat rate
0%
Formula One Group (FWONA) is a leading organization in the motorsport industry, primarily known for its Formula One racing events. As part of the Communication Services sector, it plays a significant role in the entertainment landscape, attracting millions of fans globally and generating substantial revenue through broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and ticket sales.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Formula One Group reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08, which was significantly below the expected $0.34. This disappointing performance led to a 4.61% drop in stock price the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-17.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.71%
Overall, expectations for this quarter are cautious, given the company's recent underperformance and lack of analyst estimates. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in revenue and subscriber growth.
Bull case
If Formula One can show strong growth in sponsorship and digital engagement, it could signal a turnaround, boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss expectations on revenue and subscriber growth, it may lead to further declines in stock price and investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current subscriber count for Formula One's streaming services?
This number will be critical in assessing the company's digital growth strategy and overall engagement with fans.
Q2
How much revenue was generated from sponsorships this quarter?
Sponsorship revenue is a key indicator of the company's financial health and its ability to attract and retain major partners.
Est. EPS
$3.70
Est. Rev
$3.9B
Impl. Move
±4.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for recovery in sponsorship revenue, which could rebound strongly as global events resume fully.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends show a growing interest in motorsports, which could lead to increased sponsorship deals.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are not fully aligned with a cautious outlook.
Key risk
If sponsorship revenue exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate growth in key revenue streams.
Bull confirmed if
A significant increase in sponsorship revenue, exceeding previous highs, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
If subscriber growth falls short of expectations, it would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.33%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 5.33% around the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
30d HV
24.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
99.80%
of float
Insider
1.85%
of float
Holders
404
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Linonia Partnership LP
2,118,059 sh · $186.9M
8.83%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Formula One beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.84%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations again, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.84%, further eroding investor confidence.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Principal Financial Group, Inc.
1,483,855 sh · $130.9M
6.19%
-2.3%
NORGES BANK
1,308,568 sh · $115.4M
5.45%
29.3%
State Of Wisconsin Investment Board
1,195,287 sh · $105.4M
4.98%
-7.6%
Blackrock Inc.
1,187,221 sh · $104.7M
4.95%
1.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.