Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
$-0.02
Est. revenue
$670M
Implied move
±1.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Formula One Group (FWONK) operates in the Communication Services sector, focusing on the global motorsport of Formula One racing. The company is significant as it not only generates revenue from race events but also from broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and merchandise sales, making it a key player in the entertainment industry.
Last quarter
In Q2 2024, Formula One Group reported an EPS of $0.08, significantly missing the estimate of $0.32, leading to a stock drop of 5.12% the following day. The company did not provide specific revenue figures or guidance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+48.38%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.73%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Formula One Group's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a slight loss in EPS but a solid revenue figure. The mixed earnings history raises concerns about the company's ability to meet or exceed these expectations.
Bull case
If the company can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a rebound in profitability and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue, it could further erode investor confidence, leading to a significant drop in stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.02Earnings per share is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator for investors.
Revenue
$670MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall financial health this quarter.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.02?
Given the company's recent history of missing EPS estimates, a better-than-expected EPS could signal a turnaround in performance.
Q2
What will the revenue figure be compared to the consensus of $670M?
Revenue is a key indicator of the company's operational success, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus is overly pessimistic about Formula One Group's ability to rebound, as recent investments in marketing and partnerships may not yet be reflected in the current estimates.
Supporting evidence
The company's historical performance suggests it often surprises positively after a string of misses.
Recent insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future prospects.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $726M, it could challenge the current negative sentiment and shift investor outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether the company can overcome its recent performance issues and meet market expectations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.07 or better, along with revenue exceeding $726M, would confirm a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.16 and revenue below $570M would indicate ongoing struggles.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±1.87%
The options market is pricing in a modest move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors are uncertain but not overly volatile.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss setup in Communication Services
Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.59%
of float
Insider
1.40%
of float
Holders
870
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
13,900,445 sh · $1.3B
6.20%
-0.7%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Formula One Group beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.91%, confirming a positive trend in profitability.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 2.91%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's financial health.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
10
9 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$193,010.00–$595,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
10 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
9,751,215 sh · $931.4M
4.35%
-2.8%
Jupiter Topco LLC
9,066,013 sh · $866.0M
4.04%
100.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,901,106 sh · $850.2M
3.97%
-4.8%
Principal Financial Group, Inc.
7,996,585 sh · $763.8M
3.56%
-10.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 25, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$100,001.00–$250,000.00
Traded Aug 24, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Aug 7, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Aug 3, 2026 · disclosed Sep 9, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 31, 2026 · disclosed Aug 3, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.