Materials·Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials·$2.8B
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is a leading provider of paper and plastic packaging solutions. Operating within the materials sector, the company plays a crucial role in the supply chain for consumer goods, especially as demand for sustainable packaging continues to rise.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its packaging products.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
38%
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.95%
Avg Stock Reaction
-4.61%
In Q4 2025, GPK reported an EPS of $0.29, falling short of expectations by 15.45%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping nearly 16% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect GPK to report modest earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.06 and revenue of $2.1 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery after recent earnings misses.
Bull Case
If GPK can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear Case
Conversely, another earnings miss could raise concerns about the company's ability to manage costs and demand, leading to further stock declines.
EPS
$0.06Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue
$2.1BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for its packaging products.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.06?
A beat on EPS would indicate improved profitability and could help restore investor confidence after recent misses.
Q2
What revenue figures will GPK report compared to the $2.1 billion consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory, especially after recent downturns.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating GPK's ability to rebound from recent earnings misses, given the potential for improved demand in sustainable packaging.
Supporting Evidence
Options pricing suggests an 8.39% move, indicating higher volatility expectations than historical averages.
The recent drop in stock price may have priced in overly pessimistic expectations, creating a potential buying opportunity.
GPK's focus on sustainable packaging aligns with growing market trends, which could drive future revenue growth.
Key Risk
If GPK reports strong demand for its products, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if GPK can recover from previous earnings misses and regain market trust.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.07 or higher, along with revenue exceeding $2.1 billion, would confirm a positive outlook.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.05 or revenue falling short of $1.9 billion would reinforce concerns about the company's performance.
Implied Move
±8.39%
Historical Avg
±7.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±8.4% while GPK has averaged ±7.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If GPK beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.87% on the first day, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
Should GPK miss expectations again, history suggests a potential drop of around 8.50%, which would heighten concerns about its financial health.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
PARAMOUNT SKYDANCE C Class B
May 4, 2026