Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.9%
EPS beat rate
75%
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) is a global investment bank that specializes in financial advisory services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and valuation. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a crucial role in helping companies navigate complex financial transactions, making it a key player in the financial sector.
Last quarter
In Q1-2027, Houlihan Lokey reported an EPS of $1.35, missing expectations by 17.63%. Following the announcement, the stock dropped 4.39% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.35%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.56%
Overall, Wall Street is cautious ahead of the earnings report, especially after the recent EPS misses. Investors are looking for signs of recovery in profitability and revenue.
Bull case
If Houlihan Lokey can demonstrate strong revenue growth and improved margins, it could signal a rebound in M&A activity, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, another earnings miss or weak guidance could raise concerns about the company's ability to navigate a challenging market environment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q2-2027, and how does it compare to prior quarters?
A clear EPS target will help gauge the company's recovery trajectory and influence investor sentiment.
Q2
What insights can management provide on M&A activity and revenue growth?
Understanding the outlook for M&A activity is crucial for assessing Houlihan Lokey's future revenue potential.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in M&A activity, which could drive revenue growth beyond current expectations.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 9.17% move, indicating high volatility expectations that may not align with historical performance.
The company has a 75% EPS beat rate historically, suggesting a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations.
Insider buying activity indicates confidence in the company's future prospects, which may not be reflected in current market sentiment.
Key risk
If M&A activity shows signs of significant recovery, it could challenge the current bearish consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows two consecutive earnings misses, making investor expectations particularly sensitive.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about ongoing challenges in the market.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.17%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±8.9% while HLI has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
22.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.51%
of float
Insider
0.20%
of float
Holders
670
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,240,406 sh · $656.2M
9.67%
-0.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Houlihan Lokey beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +0.31%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss again, history suggests a decline of about -3.18%, raising concerns about its market position.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
2 buys·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,774,115 sh · $347.4M
5.12%
-0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,439,724 sh · $305.5M
4.50%
0.8%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
2,426,619 sh · $303.9M
4.48%
-8.2%
Earnest Partners LLC
2,172,720 sh · $272.1M
4.01%
-2.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 7, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 16, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.