Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±5.1%
EPS beat rate
88%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) operates financial exchanges and provides data services, playing a crucial role in global financial markets. With a market cap of $86 billion, ICE is significant in facilitating trading and providing market data, which is increasingly important as financial markets evolve and technology advances.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, ICE reported an EPS of $1.90, beating estimates by 3.32%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.29% the following day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.28%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.29%
Investors are anticipating steady performance from ICE, especially given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, without specific guidance, there is uncertainty about revenue growth.
Bull case
If ICE continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
On the other hand, if revenue growth disappoints or trading volumes decline, it could raise concerns about the company's market position and profitability, leading to a negative stock reaction.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q3-2026?
EPS is a critical measure of profitability, and a strong performance could reinforce investor confidence.
Q2
How has trading volume changed compared to the previous quarter?
Trading volume directly impacts revenue, and any significant changes could indicate shifts in market demand.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of increased trading volumes on ICE's revenue, especially given recent market trends.
Supporting evidence
ICE has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which could continue this quarter.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that may not be reflected in current consensus.
The recent uptick in market activity could lead to higher trading volumes, boosting revenue.
Key risk
If trading volumes come in lower than expected, it could undermine the positive outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reflect ICE's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.80 would raise concerns about profitability and market positioning.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.15%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.1% while ICE has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
21.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.70%
of float
Insider
0.81%
of float
Holders
2,256
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
50,727,686 sh · $7.7B
9.04%
-4.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ICE beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.04%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see muted reactions as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
If ICE misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.09%, indicating concerns about profitability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
36,936,565 sh · $5.6B
6.58%
0.1%
State Street Corporation
25,966,680 sh · $4.0B
4.63%
1.6%
Harris Associates L.P.
18,050,700 sh · $2.8B
3.22%
10.4%
Morgan Stanley
13,117,904 sh · $2.0B
2.34%
-9.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 12, 2026 · disclosed Jul 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.