Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±12.9%
EPS beat rate
38%
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing targeted therapies for cancer. With a market cap of $3 billion, it operates in the health care sector, aiming to address significant unmet medical needs through innovative treatments.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, IDEAYA reported an EPS of -$1.22, slightly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively the following day, gaining 2.01%.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+8284.17%
Avg 1-day reaction
-2.11%
Overall, expectations for IDEAYA's upcoming earnings report are mixed, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are keen to see if the company can improve upon its recent performance.
Bull case
If IDEAYA can demonstrate significant progress in its clinical trials or show better-than-expected EPS, it could lead to a strong positive reaction from the market.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company continues to miss EPS expectations or fails to provide promising updates on its drug development, it may face further stock price declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What updates can management provide on the progress of ongoing clinical trials?
Investors are heavily focused on clinical trial outcomes, as they can directly influence the company's future revenue potential and stock performance.
Q2
Will the company provide any guidance on expected EPS for the next quarter?
Given the recent EPS misses, any guidance could help set expectations and stabilize investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$1.46
Est. Rev
$5.2B
Impl. Move
±12.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for IDEAYA to surprise on the upside with clinical trial results, given the lack of recent analyst estimates.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing in a 15.82% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with conservative earnings models.
The company's recent history of beating EPS estimates suggests it could outperform expectations despite recent misses.
Key risk
If clinical trial results exceed expectations, it could significantly shift market sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus is on IDEAYA's ability to turn around its earnings performance and provide positive updates on its drug development pipeline.
Bull confirmed if
A significant improvement in clinical trial results or an EPS of -$1.00 or better would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -$1.22 or negative updates on clinical trials would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.82%
Historical Avg
±4.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.9% while IDYA has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
32.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 12 of 30 (40%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 12 of 30 faded and 18 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If IDEAYA beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +1.24%.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may see a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -4.11%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.