Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.3%
EPS beat rate
38%
International Paper Company (IP) is a leading manufacturer of paper and plastic packaging products. With a market cap of $17 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as demand for sustainable packaging solutions grows amid increasing consumer awareness and environmental regulations.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, International Paper reported an EPS of $0.04, surprising analysts who expected a loss. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.20% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+191.80%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.02%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, hoping for a continuation of the positive surprise trend from last quarter.
Bull case
If the company can report a strong EPS and revenue growth, it may signal a recovery in demand and improved operational efficiency.
Bear case
Conversely, if the earnings report shows continued losses or weak revenue, it could raise concerns about the company's long-term viability in a challenging market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q3-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the recent volatility in earnings, clarity on EPS expectations will be crucial for assessing the company's recovery trajectory.
Q2
How is International Paper addressing rising costs and supply chain challenges?
Understanding the company's strategies to manage costs will be critical in evaluating its operational efficiency and margin sustainability.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a strong recovery in demand for packaging solutions, especially given recent trends in consumer behavior towards sustainability.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter's surprise EPS suggests the company may be turning a corner.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting investor uncertainty.
The historical trend shows that the company has the potential to outperform expectations.
Key risk
If EPS exceeds $0.10, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether International Paper can stabilize its earnings and improve margins amid ongoing industry challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm a positive outlook and suggest effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.00 would reinforce concerns about the company's profitability and market position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.46%
Historical Avg
±7.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.3% while IP has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
32.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Materials
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.49%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
1,198
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Capital Research Global Investors
78,469,265 sh · $2.5B
14.82%
-0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If International Paper beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.29%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
A cautious in-line report may lead to muted market reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary on future performance.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of about 9.00%, raising concerns about its ongoing viability.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
50,942,140 sh · $1.6B
9.62%
10.2%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
45,497,485 sh · $1.4B
8.59%
-7.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
34,552,688 sh · $1.1B
6.52%
0.7%
State Street Corporation
32,999,909 sh · $1.1B
6.23%
7.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.