Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Knife River Corporation operates in the construction materials sector, providing essential materials for infrastructure projects. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the materials supply chain, particularly as demand for construction continues to grow amid economic recovery efforts.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Knife River reported an EPS of $0.77, falling short of expectations by 30.82%. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.83% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-8.82%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.23%
Overall expectations are mixed as the company has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery or improvement in profitability.
Bull case
If Knife River can show a significant rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a strong recovery in demand for construction materials, leading to positive market sentiment.
Bear case
Continued earnings misses or weak guidance could further erode investor confidence, leading to additional stock price declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
The EPS figure will be crucial in determining whether the company is recovering from its recent performance issues and meeting investor expectations.
Q2
How does management view current demand trends in the construction materials market?
Management's insights on demand trends will provide context for future revenue growth and overall market conditions, which are critical for investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in construction demand, which could lead to better-than-expected earnings results this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 9.94% move, indicating expectations of significant volatility that may not align with historical performance.
The recent trend of earnings surprises suggests that the company could outperform expectations if demand has improved.
Key risk
If EPS exceeds $1.00, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it follows a series of earnings misses, and the market is eager for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
A positive EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.94%
Historical Avg
±7.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.9% while KNF has averaged ±7.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
43.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Materials
Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.2%, with a raw directional average of +1.4% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
103.64%
of float
Insider
0.43%
of float
Holders
526
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,290,232 sh · $368.4M
12.84%
4.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Knife River beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 6.37%, confirming a recovery narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 5.90%, further eroding confidence in the company's recovery prospects.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
5,116,421 sh · $258.6M
9.01%
13.8%
Capital World Investors
3,244,201 sh · $164.0M
5.72%
22.7%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,815,143 sh · $142.3M
4.96%
2.7%
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
2,739,232 sh · $138.4M
4.83%
2.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.