Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±4.9%
EPS beat rate
88%
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading global snack company known for its popular brands like Oreo and Cadbury. Operating in the consumer staples sector, Mondelez focuses on packaged foods and meats, making it a key player in the ongoing trends of consumer spending and convenience food demand.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Mondelez reported an EPS of $0.73, exceeding expectations by nearly 9%. The stock reacted positively, gaining almost 3% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.44%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.27%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of Mondelez's Q3 earnings report, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, concerns about rising costs and competition may temper enthusiasm.
Bull case
If Mondelez continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products, driving the stock higher.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance due to rising costs or market challenges, it could lead to a significant sell-off.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3 2026?
Given Mondelez's strong history of EPS beats, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.
Q2
How is Mondelez addressing rising input costs?
With inflation impacting many sectors, investors will want to hear how Mondelez plans to manage costs while maintaining margins.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Mondelez's ability to manage costs effectively, especially given its recent history of beating EPS estimates.
Supporting evidence
Mondelez has consistently surprised on the upside with EPS, suggesting strong operational management.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
Recent commentary from peers in the packaged foods sector suggests a robust demand environment.
Key risk
If Mondelez can demonstrate effective cost management and maintain or improve margins, it could significantly outperform current market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing Mondelez's ability to sustain profitability amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and market demand.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.67 could signal potential issues with cost management or sales growth.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.05%
Historical Avg
±1.6%
The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.9% while MDLZ has averaged ±1.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
17.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples
Fade rate: 9 of 28 (32%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.44%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
2,484
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
105,969,321 sh · $6.3B
8.30%
0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mondelez beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.63%, confirming the strength of its business model.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should Mondelez miss estimates, the stock could drop by approximately 2.25%, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
83,858,130 sh · $5.0B
6.57%
0.6%
Capital Research Global Investors
69,663,227 sh · $4.1B
5.46%
2.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
60,744,872 sh · $3.6B
4.76%
-2.2%
State Street Corporation
59,579,607 sh · $3.5B
4.67%
-3.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 5, 2026 · disclosed Aug 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.