Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-13.43
EPS est.
$-0.40
EPS surprise
-3224.26%
1-day move
+4.04%
Mirum Pharmaceuticals reported a significant miss on EPS, with actual earnings far below expectations. Despite this disappointing result, the stock reacted positively, increasing by 4.04%. This could indicate that investors are looking beyond the immediate earnings figures, possibly focusing on other aspects of the company's future potential.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-13.43 | $-0.39 | -3224.26% |
| Revenue | $— | $149M | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing treatments for rare liver diseases. With a market cap of $6 billion, it operates in the health care sector, which is increasingly important as the demand for specialized medical treatments continues to grow.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Mirum reported an EPS of $-0.47, significantly missing estimates, which led to a modest stock increase the following day. The company did not provide revenue figures, leaving investors uncertain about sales performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-681.12%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.41%
Analysts expect Mirum to report a loss of $0.39 per share on revenues of $149 million. Investors are watching closely for any signs of improvement in sales and cost management.
Bull case
If Mirum can exceed revenue expectations and show a narrower loss than anticipated, it could signal strong demand for its products and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or reports a larger loss, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and market position.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.39Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$149MRevenue figures will help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Mirum's revenue meet or exceed the consensus estimate of $149 million?
This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's market performance and growth potential.
Q2
What is the company's strategy for reducing its EPS loss from the consensus estimate of $-0.39?
Understanding management's approach to improving profitability will be key for investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Mirum's potential for revenue growth due to recent product developments that have not been fully factored into analyst models.
Supporting evidence
Mirum has a history of beating EPS estimates, which could indicate stronger underlying performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant news.
Insider selling could indicate a need for caution, but it may not reflect the company's overall growth potential.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $155 million, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining the company's trajectory and investor sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
Revenue exceeding $149 million with an EPS loss narrower than $-0.39 would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
Revenue falling below $141 million or an EPS loss greater than $-0.60 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.2%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±14.5% while MIRM has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.0%
30d HV
40.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
111.77%
of float
Insider
1.29%
of float
Holders
442
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.P.
7,679,684 sh · $619.3M
11.83%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Mirum beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.04%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 0.93%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Jupiter Topco LLC
5,909,184 sh · $476.5M
9.10%
100.0%
Blackrock Inc.
4,390,063 sh · $354.0M
6.76%
14.1%
FMR, LLC
3,670,314 sh · $296.0M
5.65%
86.8%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
2,655,607 sh · $214.1M
4.09%
54.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.