Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, May 11, 2026
EPS actual
$1.15
EPS est.
$0.34
EPS surprise
+235.28%
1-day move
+6.72%
monday.com reported strong earnings with an EPS that significantly exceeded expectations, indicating better profitability than analysts anticipated. However, the lack of revenue data leaves some uncertainty about overall performance. The stock reaction remained flat at 0.0%, suggesting that investors may be waiting for more information before making decisions.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.15 | $0.93 | +235.28% |
| Revenue | — | $339M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
monday.com Ltd. is a software company that provides a work operating system to help teams manage projects and workflows. Operating in the Information Technology sector, it plays a crucial role in the growing demand for digital collaboration tools as businesses increasingly shift towards remote and hybrid work environments.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, monday.com reported an impressive EPS of $1.04, significantly exceeding expectations. However, despite the strong earnings surprise, the stock price dropped by over 20% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+944.38%
Avg 1-day reaction
-6.17%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about monday.com's upcoming earnings, expecting continued strong performance in both EPS and revenue. However, the stock's recent volatility raises questions about sustainability.
Bull case
If monday.com delivers strong earnings and revenue growth, it could reinforce its position as a leader in the project management software space, attracting more investors.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the recent history of post-earnings sell-offs.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.93Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and this quarter, investors are looking for strong performance to continue the positive trend.
Revenue
$339MRevenue growth is essential for assessing the company's ability to expand its market share and sustain operations, especially in a competitive software landscape.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will monday.com achieve an EPS of at least $0.93 this quarter?
This figure is crucial for validating the company's growth narrative and could influence investor confidence significantly.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth for the upcoming quarters?
Future revenue guidance will be key in assessing the company's ability to maintain momentum and attract new customers.
—
Est. EPS
$0.42
Est. Rev
$471M
Impl. Move
±1.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for monday.com to exceed its EPS target due to its strong historical performance and ongoing product enhancements.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating market uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.
Recent product updates and market expansion efforts may not be fully reflected in analyst forecasts.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $0.86, it could undermine the positive growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will determine if the company can sustain its growth trajectory amidst increasing competition.
Bull confirmed if
Delivering an EPS of $0.93 or higher with revenue exceeding $339M would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.86 or revenue below $338M would support the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±18.37%
Historical Avg
±14.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings announcement, indicating that traders expect notable volatility.
Options are pricing ±18.4% while MNDY has averaged ±14.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.7%
30d HV
66.1%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 8 of 18 (44%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 8 of 18 faded and 10 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.0%, with a raw directional average of +0.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If monday.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase of around 0.73% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their outlook.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical data indicating an average drop of around 1.89% following such outcomes.
The lines on the call that would change the story.