Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±12.9%
EPS beat rate
100%
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) operates in the financial sector, focusing on mortgage insurance for both commercial and residential properties. As a key player in the mortgage finance industry, MGIC helps lenders manage risk and provides support for homebuyers, making it an important part of the housing market ecosystem.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, MGIC reported an EPS of $0.87, exceeding expectations by 17.09%. The stock remained stable the following day, indicating cautious optimism among investors.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+12.05%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.09%
Overall, investors are anticipating another solid performance from MGIC, especially given its track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of specific guidance raises some uncertainty.
Bull case
If MGIC continues its trend of strong EPS growth and manages to increase its mortgage insurance premiums, it could see a significant boost in investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if claims rise unexpectedly or if the housing market shows signs of weakness, it could lead to disappointing results and a negative reaction from the market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q3-2026?
Given MGIC's strong track record of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How have claims changed compared to previous quarters?
An increase in claims could signal rising risks in the mortgage market, which would weigh heavily on investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising mortgage rates on MGIC's premiums, which could lead to better-than-expected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
MGIC has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility that may not align with current consensus.
Historical performance shows that MGIC often reacts positively to strong earnings, even if the broader market sentiment is cautious.
Key risk
If claims come in lower than expected, it could significantly shift the consensus view on MGIC's risk exposure.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether MGIC can maintain its growth trajectory in a potentially challenging economic environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.90 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.75 would confirm the bear case and raise concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.9%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.9% while MTG has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
31.1%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$5.0M
187,114 sh
3 insiders
Net
$5.0M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 3 open-market trades
$3.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.93%
of float
Insider
1.76%
of float
Holders
664
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
21,931,461 sh · $593.7M
10.69%
-5.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If MGIC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.52% on the first day, confirming strong operational health.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
If MGIC misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.03%, indicating investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$781,800.00
Net selling
$589,600.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.23
137,114 sh
$3.6M
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $26.06
30,000 sh
$781,800.00
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $29.48
20,000 sh
$589,600.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
17,432,643 sh · $471.9M
8.50%
-2.9%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
13,803,323 sh · $373.7M
6.73%
1.1%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
11,267,784 sh · $305.0M
5.49%
2.5%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO
11,079,911 sh · $299.9M
5.40%
-1.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.