Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±4.1%
EPS beat rate
88%
NiSource Inc. is a utility company that provides natural gas and electricity to customers in the United States. As a key player in the utilities sector, it plays a vital role in energy distribution, which is essential for residential and commercial needs.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, NiSource reported an EPS of $0.16, slightly beating expectations. However, the stock fell by 3.64% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+7.45%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.49%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about NiSource's upcoming earnings, given its history of beating EPS estimates. However, there are concerns about revenue growth and customer retention.
Bull case
If NiSource continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and lead to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
On the other hand, if the company fails to show significant revenue growth or customer acquisition, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for this quarter?
Given NiSource's history of beating EPS estimates, this will be a key indicator of its financial health and operational efficiency.
Q2
How many new customers has NiSource acquired this quarter?
Customer growth is crucial for revenue expansion, and any significant changes will impact investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±10.3%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for NiSource to exceed EPS expectations due to improved operational efficiencies.
Supporting evidence
NiSource has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong management performance.
The options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual move, suggesting that traders expect significant news.
Historical trends show that the company has a high EPS beat rate, which could lead to a positive surprise.
Key risk
If customer acquisition numbers are significantly higher than expected, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether NiSource can maintain its profitability while also expanding its customer base.
Bull confirmed if
A reported EPS of $0.18 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.15 would support the bear case, suggesting operational challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.04%
Historical Avg
±2.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±4.1% while NI has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
15.1%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
98.13%
of float
Insider
0.35%
of float
Holders
1,232
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
54,957,602 sh · $2.2B
11.46%
6.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NiSource beats expectations, history suggests a modest positive reaction, reinforcing the company's operational strength.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical data suggesting an average drop of around 2.14% following an earnings miss.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
31,351,094 sh · $1.3B
6.54%
0.7%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
29,835,011 sh · $1.2B
6.22%
-40.1%
State Street Corporation
27,622,784 sh · $1.1B
5.76%
1.9%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
27,067,956 sh · $1.1B
5.64%
0.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.