Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±2.9%
EPS beat rate
50%
Nomura Holdings, Inc. is a global financial services group based in Japan, specializing in investment banking and brokerage services. With a market cap of $28 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in Asia, and is affected by trends in global markets and economic conditions.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Nomura reported an EPS of $0.30, exceeding expectations by 28.29%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 0.62% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+73.65%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.05%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about Nomura's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent performance. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty.
Bull case
If Nomura continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and market positioning, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining revenue, it could raise concerns about its future growth prospects and negatively impact the stock.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2027?
The EPS figure will be critical in determining whether Nomura can maintain its recent trend of beating expectations, which could influence investor sentiment.
Q2
How is Nomura addressing current market conditions?
Management's commentary on market conditions will provide insights into the company's strategy and adaptability, which are vital for future growth.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±9.4%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Nomura's ability to adapt to changing market conditions, which could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Nomura has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong management performance.
The options market is pricing a relatively modest move, suggesting that significant upside potential may be overlooked.
Key risk
If Nomura's EPS exceeds $0.35, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and shift investor expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it will reflect how well Nomura is navigating the current economic landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.35 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about declining performance.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.85%
Historical Avg
±3.3%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 2.85%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±2.9% while NMR has averaged ±3.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
24.4%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
3.19%
of float
Insider
0.00%
of float
Holders
349
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
13,163,419 sh · $125.4M
0.43%
0.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nomura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.57%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management expresses caution, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors weigh future risks.
Miss
In the event of a miss, history suggests the stock could decline by about 1.40%, reflecting disappointment in performance.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Donald Smith & Co., Inc.
12,211,249 sh · $116.4M
0.40%
-7.3%
Morgan Stanley
10,810,627 sh · $103.0M
0.35%
2.2%
Blackrock Inc.
6,636,486 sh · $63.2M
0.21%
22.4%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
5,664,585 sh · $54.0M
0.18%
2.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.