Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 14, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.12
EPS est.
$-0.15
EPS surprise
+20.00%
1-day move
+5.47%
NextNav Inc. reported a narrower loss than expected, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 5.47%. However, the company did not provide revenue figures or future guidance, leaving some uncertainty about its financial outlook. Investors may view the EPS beat as a sign of improved operational efficiency, but the lack of revenue data raises questions about overall performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.12 | $-0.15 | +20.00% |
| Revenue | — | $1M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
NextNav Inc. is a technology company focused on providing advanced positioning solutions. Operating in the application software industry, it plays a crucial role in enhancing location-based services, which are increasingly important in various sectors, including smart cities and autonomous vehicles.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, NextNav reported an EPS of $-1.42, significantly missing expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.57% the next day despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-189.99%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.84%
Analysts expect NextNav to report a loss again this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.15. Revenue is anticipated to remain stable at $1 million.
Bull case
If NextNav can narrow its losses and show signs of revenue growth, it could signal improving operational efficiency and attract investor interest.
Bear case
A larger-than-expected loss or stagnant revenue could raise concerns about the company's viability and lead to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.15Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its expenses.
Revenue
$1MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its services.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will NextNav's EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.15?
A smaller loss than expected could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which would be positively received by the market.
Q2
What are the revenue figures, and how do they compare to the $1M consensus?
Revenue performance will be critical in assessing demand for NextNav's services and could influence investor confidence.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.24
Est. Rev
$2M
Impl. Move
±12.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street is overly pessimistic about NextNav's ability to manage costs and generate revenue. There are signs that operational efficiencies may be improving, which could lead to better-than-expected results.
Supporting evidence
The stock has historically reacted positively even after significant EPS misses, indicating potential resilience.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders may expect a surprise.
The company has shown some ability to beat revenue expectations in the past, despite overall losses.
Key risk
If NextNav's revenue exceeds $1M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether NextNav can stabilize its financial performance amidst ongoing operational challenges.
Bull confirmed if
If EPS is better than $-0.15 and revenue exceeds $1M, it would support a more optimistic outlook.
Bear confirmed if
If EPS worsens beyond $-0.15 and revenue remains stagnant at $1M, it would confirm bearish sentiments.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.52%
Historical Avg
±6.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.8% while NN has averaged ±6.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.9%
30d HV
85.3%
Cross-company pattern from 25 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 4 of 17 (24%)
This setup has occurred 25 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 13 of 17 (76%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 7.9%, with a raw directional average of +3.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
60.99%
of float
Insider
23.26%
of float
Holders
304
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Fortress Investment Group LLC
18,167,792 sh · $230.9M
10.76%
28.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If NextNav beats expectations, history suggests the stock could move up by around 4.54%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
A cautious report that meets expectations may lead to minimal movement as investors await clearer signals of recovery.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 2.27%, reflecting ongoing concerns about its financial health.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Clutterbuck Capital Management LLC
8,964,292 sh · $113.9M
5.31%
-3.6%
Blackrock Inc.
8,345,940 sh · $106.1M
4.94%
11.6%
Susquehanna Advisors Group, Inc
5,550,124 sh · $70.5M
3.29%
Flat
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,934,461 sh · $50.0M
2.33%
0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.