Equity Profile

NWN

Northwest Natural Holding Company

UtilitiesGas Utilities$2.1B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

Northwest Natural Holding Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 7.67%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.33	$2.40	-2.9%
Revenue	N/A	$524M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Northwest Natural Holding Company Misses on EPS, Stock Down 7.67%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.33	$2.40	-2.9%
Revenue	N/A	$524M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

The earnings report indicates that Northwest Natural Holding Company fell short of earnings expectations, which contributed to a significant stock decline of 7.67%. The missing revenue data adds uncertainty to the overall performance. Investors may be concerned about the company's ability to meet future expectations without further guidance.

Company Snapshot

Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates in the gas utilities sector, providing natural gas services to residential and commercial customers. As a utility company, it plays a crucial role in energy distribution, which is essential for heating and cooking, especially in the Pacific Northwest.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health.

$2.40

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand.

$524M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+59.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, NWN reported an EPS of $1.39, slightly exceeding analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NWN to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.40. The market is closely watching for any signs of revenue growth amidst fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Case

If NWN beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its financial stability and lead to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.40

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$524M

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.40?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given current market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's ability to navigate fluctuating energy prices and demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent regulatory changes that could favor NWN's pricing power, leading to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in energy prices suggest a potential for higher margins than analysts anticipate.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

NWN's historical performance shows a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which could repeat this quarter.

Key Risk

If NWN's revenue growth significantly exceeds the consensus of $524M, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well NWN can manage costs and maintain revenue amidst market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.45 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.31 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.77%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while NWN has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

15.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 15 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 6 of 15 faded and 9 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.9%, with a raw directional average of -0.2% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NWN beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest positive reaction, confirming operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience limited movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 1.31%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on regulatory changes affecting gas pricing.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into customer demand trends in the Pacific Northwest.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth amidst market volatility.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or new initiatives.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health.

$2.40

Revenue

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand.

$524M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+59.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.12%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, NWN reported an EPS of $1.39, slightly exceeding analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 5.51% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect NWN to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.40. The market is closely watching for any signs of revenue growth amidst fluctuating energy prices.

Bull Case

If NWN beats EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its financial stability and lead to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.40

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$524M

Revenue figures help gauge the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.40?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger-than-expected profitability and boost investor confidence.

What is the outlook for revenue growth given current market conditions?

Understanding revenue trends will help assess the company's ability to navigate fluctuating energy prices and demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent regulatory changes that could favor NWN's pricing power, leading to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in energy prices suggest a potential for higher margins than analysts anticipate.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.

NWN's historical performance shows a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, which could repeat this quarter.

Key Risk

If NWN's revenue growth significantly exceeds the consensus of $524M, it could challenge current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on how well NWN can manage costs and maintain revenue amidst market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.45 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.31 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.77%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±3.8% while NWN has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

15.6%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 15 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If NWN beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest positive reaction, confirming operational strength.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience limited movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 1.31%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on regulatory changes affecting gas pricing.
2Details on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into customer demand trends in the Pacific Northwest.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth amidst market volatility.
5Any commentary on operational efficiencies or new initiatives.