Equity Profile

OSCR

Oscar Health, Inc.

FinancialsLife & Health Insurance$7.4B

May6Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:00 AM EDT

Oscar Health, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 10.59%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.07	$1.10	+71.07%
Revenue	—	$4.9B	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Oscar Health, Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Up 10.59%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$2.07	$1.10	+71.07%
Revenue	—	$4.9B	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Oscar Health's strong earnings per share significantly exceeded expectations, contributing to a 10.59% increase in stock price. However, revenue figures were not reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may view the EPS surprise as a positive sign for the company's profitability moving forward.

Company Snapshot

Oscar Health, Inc. is a health insurance company focused on providing affordable health coverage through technology-driven solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

$1.10

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

$4.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Oscar Health, Inc. is a health insurance company focused on providing affordable health coverage through technology-driven solutions. Operating in the Financials sector, Oscar aims to simplify healthcare for its members, making it a notable player in the life and health insurance industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Oscar Health reported an EPS of -$1.24, which was significantly below expectations, leading to a negative surprise. The stock reacted positively the following day, indicating some investor optimism despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving customer engagement through enhanced digital tools.
Commitment to expanding market share in key regions.
Plans to streamline operations to reduce costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Oscar's upcoming earnings, with expectations for a rebound in EPS and revenue growth. However, the company has a mixed track record, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Bull Case

If Oscar can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.10

Earnings per share is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

Revenue

$4.9B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.10?

A positive EPS surprise could indicate a turnaround and improve investor sentiment.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter compared to the consensus of $4.9B?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Oscar's potential for a strong recovery this quarter, given its recent focus on improving customer engagement and operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 12.48% move, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.

The company's commitment to digital tools could enhance customer retention and growth.

Past performance shows that surprises can lead to significant stock reactions, indicating potential for upside.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $1.10, it could reinforce bearish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it will reveal whether Oscar can recover from previous misses and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.26 would validate the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.48%

Historical Avg

±9.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.9% while OSCR has averaged ±9.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

57.0%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.89Puts (939K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 20 (40%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 8 of 20 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.8%, with a raw directional average of -0.7% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Oscar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +7.15%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.89%, reinforcing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer engagement metrics and retention rates.
2Any commentary on operational improvements and cost management strategies.
3Insights into market share growth in key regions.
4Details on new product offerings or services.
5Management's outlook on future profitability and revenue growth.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Oscar Health, Inc. is a health insurance company focused on providing affordable health coverage through technology-driven solutions....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

$1.10

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

$4.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-38.79%

Avg Stock Reaction

+2.43%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving customer engagement through enhanced digital tools.
Commitment to expanding market share in key regions.
Plans to streamline operations to reduce costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Oscar can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in profitability and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again, it could raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to a further decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.10

Earnings per share is crucial as it reflects the company's profitability and is a key indicator of financial health.

Revenue

$4.9B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's growth and market demand for its insurance products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.10?

A positive EPS surprise could indicate a turnaround and improve investor sentiment.

What are the revenue expectations for this quarter compared to the consensus of $4.9B?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's market position and future prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Oscar's potential for a strong recovery this quarter, given its recent focus on improving customer engagement and operational efficiency.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 12.48% move, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.

The company's commitment to digital tools could enhance customer retention and growth.

Past performance shows that surprises can lead to significant stock reactions, indicating potential for upside.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $1.10, it could reinforce bearish sentiment and lead to a reassessment of the company's growth prospects.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report is pivotal as it will reveal whether Oscar can recover from previous misses and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.10 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.26 would validate the bear case and raise concerns about the company's financial health.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.48%

Historical Avg

±9.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±11.9% while OSCR has averaged ±9.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

1.6%

30d HV

57.0%

Calls (1.7M)P/C Ratio: 0.89Puts (939K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 20 (40%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Oscar beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +7.15%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.89%, reinforcing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on customer engagement metrics and retention rates.
2Any commentary on operational improvements and cost management strategies.
3Insights into market share growth in key regions.
4Details on new product offerings or services.
5Management's outlook on future profitability and revenue growth.