Equity Profile

PARR

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing$2.8B

May5Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:15 PM EDT

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.78	$1.12	-25.36%
Revenue	—	$1.8B	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.00%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.78	$1.12	-25.36%
Revenue	—	$1.8B	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Par Pacific Holdings reported lower-than-expected earnings per share for the first quarter of 2026, missing consensus estimates by over 25%. Despite this miss, the stock did not react negatively, remaining unchanged on the day of the earnings release. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary leaves investors with limited insights into the company's performance and future outlook.

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues.

$1.12

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for refined products.

$1.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, particularly in refining crude oil into usable products. As energy demand fluctuates, Par Pacific's performance can be influenced by global oil prices and refining margins.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $1.17, slightly missing the estimate of $1.21. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 0.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management aimed to improve refining margins.
They committed to maintaining operational efficiency.
They planned to explore new market opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Par Pacific to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.12. However, there is uncertainty due to recent fluctuations in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and effective cost management, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

A miss on earnings could indicate ongoing challenges in refining margins or operational inefficiencies, which may lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.12

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues.

Revenue

$1.8B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $1.12, indicating strong profitability?

A higher EPS would demonstrate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue expectations for the quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand for refined products and the company's ability to capitalize on pricing trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements that could drive higher margins, despite current oil price pressures.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Recent operational commitments suggest a focus on efficiency that could lead to better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to EPS exceeding $1.20, challenging the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for strong earnings against the backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case by showing strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would indicate significant challenges and confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.02%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.0% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

66.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 0.92Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.92%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.20%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin improvements.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends.
3Details on operational efficiency initiatives.
4Insights into market demand for refined products.
5Any commentary on potential new market opportunities.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

May4

GRABReported

Grab Holdings Limited

RecapView

May4

GBDCReported

Company Snapshot

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues.

$1.12

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for refined products.

$1.8B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+108.82%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.36%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $1.17, slightly missing the estimate of $1.21. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 0.79% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management aimed to improve refining margins.
They committed to maintaining operational efficiency.
They planned to explore new market opportunities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Par Pacific to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.12. However, there is uncertainty due to recent fluctuations in oil prices.

Bull Case

If Par Pacific beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and effective cost management, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

A miss on earnings could indicate ongoing challenges in refining margins or operational inefficiencies, which may lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.12

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues.

Revenue

$1.8B

Revenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for refined products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed $1.12, indicating strong profitability?

A higher EPS would demonstrate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.

What are the revenue expectations for the quarter?

Revenue performance will indicate market demand for refined products and the company's ability to capitalize on pricing trends.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements that could drive higher margins, despite current oil price pressures.

Supporting Evidence

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Recent operational commitments suggest a focus on efficiency that could lead to better-than-expected results.

Key Risk

If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to EPS exceeding $1.20, challenging the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing the potential for strong earnings against the backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case by showing strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.00 would indicate significant challenges and confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.02%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.0% while PARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.9%

30d HV

66.8%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 0.92Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.92%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.20%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on refining margin improvements.
2Management's outlook on oil price trends.
3Details on operational efficiency initiatives.
4Insights into market demand for refined products.
5Any commentary on potential new market opportunities.