Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$0.78
EPS est.
$1.04
EPS surprise
-25.36%
1-day move
+2.73%
Par Pacific Holdings reported lower-than-expected earnings per share for the first quarter of 2026, missing consensus estimates by over 25%. Despite this miss, the stock did not react negatively, remaining unchanged on the day of the earnings release. The lack of revenue figures and management commentary leaves investors with limited insights into the company's performance and future outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.78 | $1.12 | -25.36% |
| Revenue | — | $1.8B | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates in the energy sector, focusing on oil and gas refining and marketing. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the energy supply chain, particularly in refining crude oil into usable products. As energy demand fluctuates, Par Pacific's performance can be influenced by global oil prices and refining margins.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Par Pacific reported an EPS of $1.17, slightly missing the estimate of $1.21. The stock reacted positively, increasing by 0.79% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+77.10%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.31%
Analysts expect Par Pacific to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.12. However, there is uncertainty due to recent fluctuations in oil prices.
Bull case
If Par Pacific beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong operational performance and effective cost management, leading to increased investor confidence.
Bear case
A miss on earnings could indicate ongoing challenges in refining margins or operational inefficiencies, which may lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.12Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues.
Revenue
$1.8BRevenue figures provide insight into overall sales performance and market demand for refined products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed $1.12, indicating strong profitability?
A higher EPS would demonstrate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What are the revenue expectations for the quarter?
Revenue performance will indicate market demand for refined products and the company's ability to capitalize on pricing trends.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the impact of recent operational improvements that could drive higher margins, despite current oil price pressures.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.
Recent operational commitments suggest a focus on efficiency that could lead to better-than-expected results.
Key risk
If refining margins improve significantly, it could lead to EPS exceeding $1.20, challenging the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the potential for strong earnings against the backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and refining margins.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.20 or higher would confirm the bull case by showing strong profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.00 would indicate significant challenges and confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.02%
Historical Avg
±1.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.0% while PARR has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.9%
30d HV
66.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
103.92%
of float
Insider
2.63%
of float
Holders
513
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
7,169,208 sh · $617.4M
14.31%
-3.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Par Pacific beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +0.92%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.20%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
State Street Corporation
3,345,818 sh · $288.1M
6.68%
8.3%
Invesco Ltd.
2,745,999 sh · $236.5M
5.48%
37.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,129,297 sh · $183.4M
4.25%
2.0%
American Century Companies Inc
2,108,900 sh · $181.6M
4.21%
16.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.