Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Est. EPS
$4.33
Est. revenue
$22.5B
Implied move
±3.9%
EPS beat rate
75%
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance in the United States. It plays a crucial role in the financial sector by offering various insurance products that protect individuals and businesses from potential losses, making it a key player in the insurance industry.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Progressive reported an EPS of $5.67, significantly exceeding expectations by nearly 24%. However, the stock fell by 9.43% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the strong earnings.
EPS beat streak
3Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+13.06%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.10%
Analysts expect Progressive to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $4.33. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the insurance sector.
Bull case
If Progressive beats EPS expectations again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and customer retention, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses EPS expectations, it may raise concerns about rising costs or competitive pressures, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$4.33Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company is managing its costs and revenue.
Revenue
$22.5BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is essential for growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.33?
A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and instill confidence in investors.
Q2
What insights can management provide regarding revenue growth in the current market environment?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's competitive position and future growth prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±6.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Progressive's ability to manage costs effectively, especially in a competitive insurance market.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating potential overreaction to uncertainty.
Past performance shows that even strong EPS beats have not always translated into positive stock reactions, suggesting market skepticism.
Key risk
If EPS falls below $4.00, it could undermine confidence in the company's growth strategy.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Progressive can maintain its strong earnings trajectory amid potential industry challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.50 or higher would confirm strong profitability and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $4.00 would raise concerns about rising costs and competitive pressures.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.95%
Historical Avg
±2.8%
The options market is pricing in a move of nearly 4%, suggesting that investors are anticipating some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.9% while PGR has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
21.7%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$250,255.25
1,225 sh
1 insider
Net
$250,255.25
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$250,255.25
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.92%
of float
Insider
0.24%
of float
Holders
2,469
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
48,048,848 sh · $10.3B
8.26%
-8.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Progressive beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.36% on the following day, confirming strong operational health.
In line / cautious
If results are in line, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 3.07%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
2 buys·1 sell
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 24, 2026 · @ $204.29
1,225 sh
$250,255.25
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
38,148,192 sh · $8.2B
6.56%
0.1%
Capital Research Global Investors
26,549,107 sh · $5.7B
4.57%
17.6%
State Street Corporation
26,526,959 sh · $5.7B
4.56%
2.5%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
17,009,978 sh · $3.6B
2.93%
4.6%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
1 trade
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 17, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Apr 27, 2026 · disclosed May 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.