Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$0.05
EPS est.
$-0.65
EPS surprise
+107.67%
1-day move
-0.31%
Protagonist Therapeutics reported a positive surprise on EPS, significantly beating expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.31%. This could indicate investor caution despite the strong EPS performance, especially given the lack of revenue and guidance information.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.05 | $-0.65 | +107.67% |
| Revenue | N/A | $16M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing novel therapies for serious diseases. As part of the health care sector, its innovations could significantly impact patient care and treatment options, especially in areas with high unmet medical needs.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Protagonist reported an EPS of -0.69, missing estimates by a significant margin. The stock reacted negatively, dropping slightly the next day.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
+398.56%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.20%
Analysts expect another challenging quarter for Protagonist, with a consensus EPS loss of $-0.65 and revenue of $16 million. The company has struggled to meet earnings expectations recently.
Bull case
If Protagonist can beat EPS estimates and show stronger-than-expected revenue growth, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its therapies.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it could raise concerns about its product pipeline and financial management, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-0.65Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
16MRevenue figures will help gauge the company's market traction and the success of its product pipeline.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Protagonist achieve an EPS closer to the consensus estimate of -0.65 or better?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will Protagonist report, and how do they compare to the $16 million consensus?
Revenue performance will provide insight into the market acceptance of its products and the overall health of the business.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be overly pessimistic about Protagonist's revenue potential, given recent advancements in its product pipeline that have not yet been fully recognized by analysts.
Supporting evidence
The company has a strong pipeline that could lead to unexpected revenue growth.
Options pricing suggests that the market is anticipating a larger move than historical averages would imply.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $20 million, it could significantly shift market sentiment and validate the company's growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a series of misses, and any significant deviation from expectations could heavily influence market sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of -0.50 or better, along with revenue exceeding $20 million, would confirm a positive outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -1.00 and revenue below $10 million would confirm a negative outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.43%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a moderate move, suggesting investors expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±2.4% while PTGX has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
41.0%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 4 of 18 (22%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 14 of 18 (78%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.8%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$8.3M
58,629 sh
1 insider
Net
$8.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$8.3M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
119.66%
of float
Insider
0.71%
of float
Holders
486
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
10,307,837 sh · $1.5B
15.93%
5.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Protagonist beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 1.36%, confirming a turnaround in operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see limited movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 0.80%, raising concerns about its future prospects.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $141.78
46,034 sh
$6.5M
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $141.77
12,595 sh
$1.8M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Farallon Capital Management LLC
6,348,906 sh · $894.7M
9.81%
Flat
RTW Investments LP
5,061,175 sh · $713.2M
7.82%
0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,629,298 sh · $511.4M
5.61%
4.3%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
3,416,781 sh · $481.5M
5.28%
-5.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.