Equity Profile

SAM

The Boston Beer Company, Inc.

Consumer StaplesBrewers$1.9B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading craft brewer known for its Samuel Adams brand and a variety of other beverages....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Boston Beer has managed its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, especially in a competitive brewing industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SAM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading craft brewer known for its Samuel Adams brand and a variety of other beverages. As a player in the consumer staples sector, it is affected by trends in consumer spending and preferences, particularly in the alcohol market.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-108.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Boston Beer reported a significant earnings miss with an EPS of -$13.88, far below expectations. The stock reacted mildly positive, increasing by 0.23% the next day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after the last quarter's substantial miss. Investors are looking for signs of recovery or growth in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If Boston Beer shows a strong rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its business strategy and consumer demand, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or weak revenue figures could indicate deeper issues within the company, potentially leading to a further decline in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the drastic miss last quarter, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability.

What is the revenue growth outlook for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to regain market share and consumer interest.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Boston Beer's potential for a rebound due to its strong brand portfolio and recent product innovations.

Supporting Evidence

Despite a significant EPS miss last quarter, the company has historically shown resilience in recovering from downturns.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Boston Beer has a loyal customer base that may drive sales even in challenging market conditions.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will reveal whether Boston Beer can stabilize its financial performance after a significant earnings miss.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or better would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $5.00 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.56%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.6% while SAM has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.0%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 15.40Puts (900)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 30 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 20 of 30 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.4%, with a raw directional average of +0.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Boston Beer beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.44% on the next trading day, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

Should the company miss again, historical patterns indicate a potential decline of about 0.02% on the following day, reflecting continued investor caution.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or marketing strategies.
2Details on cost management efforts and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in the brewing industry.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading craft brewer known for its Samuel Adams brand and a variety of other beverages....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will show how well Boston Beer has managed its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers, especially in a competitive brewing industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

SAM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-108.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.27%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautious ahead of the upcoming earnings report, especially after the last quarter's substantial miss. Investors are looking for signs of recovery or growth in revenue and profitability.

Bull Case

If Boston Beer shows a strong rebound in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in its business strategy and consumer demand, leading to increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

Continued losses or weak revenue figures could indicate deeper issues within the company, potentially leading to a further decline in stock price and investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the drastic miss last quarter, the market will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in profitability.

What is the revenue growth outlook for the upcoming quarter?

Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to regain market share and consumer interest.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Boston Beer's potential for a rebound due to its strong brand portfolio and recent product innovations.

Supporting Evidence

Despite a significant EPS miss last quarter, the company has historically shown resilience in recovering from downturns.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Boston Beer has a loyal customer base that may drive sales even in challenging market conditions.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results are pivotal as they will reveal whether Boston Beer can stabilize its financial performance after a significant earnings miss.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or better would confirm a strong recovery and positive momentum.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $5.00 would indicate ongoing struggles and could lead to further stock declines.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±18.56%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±18.6% while SAM has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

42.0%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 15.40Puts (900)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 30 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Boston Beer beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.44% on the next trading day, confirming a positive turnaround.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await clearer guidance on future performance.

Miss

Should the company miss again, historical patterns indicate a potential decline of about 0.02% on the following day, reflecting continued investor caution.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or marketing strategies.
2Details on cost management efforts and their impact on profitability.
3Insights into consumer trends and how they are affecting sales.
4Management's outlook on the competitive landscape in the brewing industry.
5Any commentary on supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.