Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.65
EPS est.
$0.65
EPS surprise
+0.00%
1-day move
+0.20%
STAG Industrial's earnings report showed that the company matched expectations on EPS, leading to a slight increase in stock price by 0.2%. However, without revenue figures or additional commentary from management, investors may have limited insight into the company's performance and future outlook. The lack of guidance could also contribute to uncertainty among investors.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.65 | N/A | +0.00% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on acquiring and managing industrial properties across the United States. As e-commerce and logistics continue to grow, the demand for industrial spaces is expected to rise, making STAG an important player in this sector.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, STAG reported an EPS of $0.65, matching analyst expectations. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.20% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+1.74%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.00%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of STAG's earnings report, given its consistent EPS performance in recent quarters.
Bull case
If STAG continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and increased investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of declining occupancy rates or rental income could raise concerns about future growth and profitability.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current occupancy rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Occupancy rates are crucial for assessing the demand for STAG's properties and can significantly impact revenue.
Q2
What are the expectations for rental income growth in the upcoming quarters?
Understanding rental income growth will provide insights into the company's revenue potential and overall health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating STAG's ability to maintain high occupancy rates despite economic fluctuations, which could lead to stronger-than-expected rental income.
Supporting evidence
STAG has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, indicating strong operational management.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
No recent insider activity suggests confidence in the company's performance.
Key risk
If occupancy rates fall below 90%, it could challenge the market's optimistic view on STAG's growth potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus will be on occupancy rates and rental income growth, which are critical indicators of STAG's performance.
Bull confirmed if
A reported occupancy rate above 95% would confirm strong demand and support a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An occupancy rate below 90% would raise concerns about demand and could confirm a bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.44%
Historical Avg
±0.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.4% while STAG has averaged ±0.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
20.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Real Estate
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
96.60%
of float
Insider
0.14%
of float
Holders
740
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
28,826,227 sh · $1.0B
14.95%
0.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If STAG beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.09% on the first day, confirming operational strength.
In line / cautious
A cautious but in-line report could lead to muted reactions, reflecting uncertainty in the market.
Miss
If STAG misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline, although specific data on average declines is not available.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
17,183,678 sh · $606.2M
8.91%
2.0%
FMR, LLC
12,657,464 sh · $446.6M
6.56%
-11.1%
State Street Corporation
9,180,417 sh · $323.9M
4.76%
0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
8,653,439 sh · $305.3M
4.49%
0.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.