Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring and managing industrial properties across the United States....
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well STAG is managing its costs and generating income.
Occupancy Rate
A high occupancy rate indicates strong demand for STAG's properties, which is crucial for revenue stability.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
88%
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.07%
Avg Stock Reaction
+0.09%
In Q1 2026, STAG reported earnings per share of $0.65, matching analyst expectations. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.20% the following day, indicating a stable performance.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall expectations for STAG's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors are keen to see how the company navigates current market conditions.
Bull Case
If STAG can demonstrate strong rental income growth and maintain high occupancy rates, it could signal robust demand for its properties, leading to positive investor sentiment.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company reports lower occupancy or rental income growth, it may raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability in a competitive market.
EPS
N/AEarnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well STAG is managing its costs and generating income.
Occupancy Rate
N/AA high occupancy rate indicates strong demand for STAG's properties, which is crucial for revenue stability.
Rental Income Growth
N/AGrowth in rental income reflects the company's ability to increase revenue from its properties, which is vital for overall financial health.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the current occupancy rate and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Occupancy rates are critical for revenue generation, and any decline could indicate weakening demand for STAG's properties.
Q2
How has rental income changed compared to the previous quarter?
Changes in rental income will provide insights into the company's revenue growth and overall financial health.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating STAG's ability to maintain high occupancy rates despite economic pressures, as the demand for industrial space remains strong.
Supporting Evidence
STAG has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than STAG's historical average, suggesting potential for a positive surprise.
Key Risk
If occupancy rates exceed 95% and rental income shows significant growth, it could challenge the cautious outlook.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the market is particularly focused on occupancy and rental income as indicators of STAG's performance amid economic fluctuations.
Bull Confirmed If
A rental income growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
A decline in occupancy rates below 95% would confirm the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±10.37%
Historical Avg
±0.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±10.4% while STAG has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
22.0%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Real Estate
n=30Fade rate: 2 of 9 (22%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 7 of 9 (78%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.3%, with a raw directional average of -0.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If STAG beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.09%, confirming strong demand for its properties.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 0.92%.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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Southern Copper Corporation