Equity Profile

TERN

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals

May7Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

Consensus EPS

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or worsening losses.

-0.26

Revenue

Although no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams or partnerships could influence investor sentiment.

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TERN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases. As part of the pharmaceuticals sector, Terns is working on addressing unmet medical needs, which is crucial for advancing healthcare solutions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.97%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Terns reported an EPS of -1.03, significantly missing the estimate of -0.29. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Terns to report a loss of $0.26 per share this quarter, with no revenue anticipated. Investors will be keenly watching for any updates on drug development progress.

Bull Case

If Terns can beat the EPS estimate and provide positive updates on their drug pipeline, it could signal potential for future profitability and growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides no new information on their development efforts, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Consensus EPS

-0.26

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or worsening losses.

Revenue

Although no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams or partnerships could influence investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Terns provide any updates on their drug development pipeline?

Investors are looking for clarity on the progress of Terns' therapies, which could impact future revenue potential.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS misses?

Understanding management's strategy for improving financial performance is crucial for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Terns to surprise on the upside given their strong historical EPS beat rate of 88%.

Supporting Evidence

Terns has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, which could indicate a potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that traders may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If Terns can show any signs of progress in their drug pipeline, it could significantly alter investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Terns can turn around its financial performance and provide a clearer path to profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of -0.22 or better would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.32 would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.04%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move around earnings, indicating that traders expect limited volatility.

Options are pricing ±1.0% while TERN has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

17.6%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.6%, with a raw directional average of -1.3% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Terns beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.12%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.08%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the drug development pipeline and any potential partnerships.
2Management's strategy for addressing recent EPS misses.
3Any commentary on future revenue projections or market opportunities.
4Insights into the competitive landscape and how Terns plans to differentiate itself.
5Details on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a healthcare company focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

Consensus EPS

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or worsening losses.

-0.26

Revenue

Although no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams or partnerships could influence investor sentiment.

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TERN Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

-20.48%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.97%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Terns reported an EPS of -1.03, significantly missing the estimate of -0.29. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.08% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Terns to report a loss of $0.26 per share this quarter, with no revenue anticipated. Investors will be keenly watching for any updates on drug development progress.

Bull Case

If Terns can beat the EPS estimate and provide positive updates on their drug pipeline, it could signal potential for future profitability and growth.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides no new information on their development efforts, it could lead to further declines in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Consensus EPS

-0.26

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or worsening losses.

Revenue

Although no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams or partnerships could influence investor sentiment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Terns provide any updates on their drug development pipeline?

Investors are looking for clarity on the progress of Terns' therapies, which could impact future revenue potential.

How does management plan to address the recent EPS misses?

Understanding management's strategy for improving financial performance is crucial for investor confidence.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for Terns to surprise on the upside given their strong historical EPS beat rate of 88%.

Supporting Evidence

Terns has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the past, which could indicate a potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a smaller move than historical averages, suggesting that traders may be overly cautious.

Key Risk

If Terns can show any signs of progress in their drug pipeline, it could significantly alter investor sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Terns can turn around its financial performance and provide a clearer path to profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS of -0.22 or better would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than -0.32 would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±1.04%

Historical Avg

±2.8%

Pricing cheap

The options market is pricing in a modest move around earnings, indicating that traders expect limited volatility.

Options are pricing ±1.0% while TERN has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.

Detail

30d HV

17.6%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Terns beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +1.12%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average one-day move of -0.08%, reflecting ongoing concerns about profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the drug development pipeline and any potential partnerships.
2Management's strategy for addressing recent EPS misses.
3Any commentary on future revenue projections or market opportunities.
4Insights into the competitive landscape and how Terns plans to differentiate itself.
5Details on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.