Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, May 7, 2026
Est. EPS
$-0.26
Est. revenue
$0M
Implied move
±1.0%
EPS beat rate
88%
Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a company in the health care sector focused on developing innovative therapies for patients with serious diseases. As a player in the pharmaceuticals industry, its progress can impact treatment options and market dynamics significantly.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Terns reported an EPS of -1.03, significantly missing the estimate of -0.29. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.08% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
-20.48%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.97%
Analysts expect Terns to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of -0.26. Investors will be looking for any signs of improvement or future revenue potential.
Bull case
If Terns can narrow its losses and provide positive updates on drug development or partnerships, it could signal a turnaround and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Continued losses or lack of progress in drug development could further erode investor trust, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-0.26Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
0MWhile no revenue is expected this quarter, any updates on future revenue streams will be closely monitored.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Terns provide any updates on its drug development pipeline?
Investors are eager to know if there are any advancements or setbacks that could affect future revenue potential.
Q2
What is the company's strategy to reduce losses moving forward?
Understanding management's approach to improving financial performance will be crucial for investor confidence.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Terns to narrow its losses based on recent developments in its drug pipeline.
Supporting evidence
Terns has historically beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, indicating potential for a positive surprise.
The options market is pricing a smaller move than the historical average, suggesting that investors may be overly cautious.
Key risk
If Terns can show any signs of progress in its drug development, it could challenge the current negative sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a significant miss last quarter, and any signs of improvement could shift investor sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
If Terns reports an EPS loss narrower than -0.22, it could indicate progress in its operations.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss wider than -0.32 would suggest ongoing challenges in the company's financial health.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±0.99%
Historical Avg
±2.8%
The options market is pricing in a modest move, suggesting that investors are not expecting significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±1.0% while TERN has averaged ±2.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
30d HV
17.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Terns beats expectations and provides positive guidance, history suggests a potential average move of +1.12%, confirming a bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations but lack strong guidance, the stock may see muted reactions as investors weigh future prospects.
Miss
If Terns misses estimates, history suggests a potential average move of -0.08%, indicating continued investor caution.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
—
Est. EPS
$0.24
Est. Rev
$101M
Impl. Move
±11.2%