Equity Profile

TXRH

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryRestaurants$11.2B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular casual dining restaurant chain known for its steaks and Texas-themed atmosphere....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and can signal consumer demand.

4.5%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.90

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular casual dining restaurant chain known for its steaks and Texas-themed atmosphere. As part of the consumer discretionary sector, it is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions, making it an important player in the restaurant industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Texas Roadhouse reported earnings per share of $1.87, matching analyst expectations with a slight surprise. However, the stock experienced a decline of 1.10% the following day, indicating cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding menu options to attract more customers.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency to enhance margins.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic about Texas Roadhouse's upcoming earnings report, hoping for solid same-store sales growth and improved profitability. However, recent earnings misses have raised concerns about the company's ability to meet expectations.

Bull Case

If Texas Roadhouse can demonstrate strong same-store sales growth and beat EPS expectations, it could signal robust consumer demand and operational effectiveness, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales or misses EPS targets again, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the restaurant sector, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

4.5%

This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and can signal consumer demand.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.90

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Total Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue reflects overall business growth and consumer spending at Texas Roadhouse locations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure will be critical in assessing consumer demand and operational success, directly impacting investor sentiment.

Will Texas Roadhouse meet or exceed the EPS estimate of $1.90?

A strong EPS performance could restore confidence after recent misses, while a failure to meet expectations could further dampen investor outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Texas Roadhouse's recent menu innovations and expansion plans, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales growth.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer dining preferences suggest a shift towards casual dining, which could benefit Texas Roadhouse.

The company's commitment to operational efficiency may enhance margins, even if sales growth is modest.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a larger reaction than historical performance would imply.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on whether Texas Roadhouse can sustain growth amid economic pressures and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and operational effectiveness.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 3% would raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the restaurant sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.25%, confirming a strong recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 0.64%, reinforcing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales growth and customer traffic trends.
2Management's commentary on cost management and margin improvement strategies.
3Details on new menu items and their reception by customers.
4Insights into expansion plans and potential new locations.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and market conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular casual dining restaurant chain known for its steaks and Texas-themed atmosphere....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and can signal consumer demand.

4.5%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$1.90

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding menu options to attract more customers.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency to enhance margins.
Plans to open new locations in key markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales or misses EPS targets again, it may indicate ongoing challenges in the restaurant sector, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

4.5%

This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and can signal consumer demand.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$1.90

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Total Revenue

$1.1B

Total revenue reflects overall business growth and consumer spending at Texas Roadhouse locations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure will be critical in assessing consumer demand and operational success, directly impacting investor sentiment.

Will Texas Roadhouse meet or exceed the EPS estimate of $1.90?

A strong EPS performance could restore confidence after recent misses, while a failure to meet expectations could further dampen investor outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of Texas Roadhouse's recent menu innovations and expansion plans, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales growth.

Supporting Evidence

Recent trends in consumer dining preferences suggest a shift towards casual dining, which could benefit Texas Roadhouse.

The company's commitment to operational efficiency may enhance margins, even if sales growth is modest.

Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a larger reaction than historical performance would imply.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 5%, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers on whether Texas Roadhouse can sustain growth amid economic pressures and competition.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and operational effectiveness.

Bear Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth below 3% would raise concerns about ongoing challenges in the restaurant sector.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise around 2.25%, confirming a strong recovery narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a decline of approximately 0.64%, reinforcing concerns about its performance.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$2,002.00–$30,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
2

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales growth and customer traffic trends.
2Management's commentary on cost management and margin improvement strategies.
3Details on new menu items and their reception by customers.
4Insights into expansion plans and potential new locations.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures and market conditions.