Equity Profile

TXRH

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryRestaurants$12.6B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular restaurant chain known for its casual dining experience and focus on American cuisine, particularly steaks....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric reflects how well existing locations are performing and is crucial for understanding customer demand.

4.5%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular restaurant chain known for its casual dining experience and focus on American cuisine, particularly steaks. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, its performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Texas Roadhouse reported an EPS of $1.87, matching analyst expectations with a slight positive surprise. However, the stock experienced a decline of 1.10% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience and menu offerings.
Commitment to maintaining operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into new markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect Texas Roadhouse to deliver solid results, but there are concerns about rising costs and competition in the restaurant sector. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of sustained growth.

Bull Case

If the company reports strong same-store sales and manages to control costs effectively, it could lead to a positive market reaction and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company shows signs of slowing sales growth or rising expenses, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors, reflecting broader concerns in the restaurant industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

4.5%

This metric reflects how well existing locations are performing and is crucial for understanding customer demand.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

N/A

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Total Revenue

N/A

Revenue growth indicates overall business expansion and customer engagement, which are vital for future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure is crucial for assessing customer demand and overall business health, and it will heavily influence market sentiment.

How is Texas Roadhouse managing rising costs and supply chain challenges?

Understanding the company's strategies for cost management will be key to evaluating its profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Texas Roadhouse's ability to manage costs effectively while driving sales growth, especially given its strong brand loyalty.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows resilience even in challenging economic conditions.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, suggesting investors anticipate significant news.

Management's previous commitments to enhancing customer experience could lead to stronger sales than expected.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain growth amidst rising costs and competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 5% or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong customer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

If same-store sales growth falls below 3%, it would support the bear case and raise concerns about the company's competitive position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.25%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh the company's commentary on future growth prospects.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales growth and customer traffic trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and supply chain improvements.
3Any commentary on expansion plans and new market entries.
4Insights into menu innovation and customer engagement initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and economic conditions.

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Company Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a popular restaurant chain known for its casual dining experience and focus on American cuisine, particularly steaks....

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

This metric reflects how well existing locations are performing and is crucial for understanding customer demand.

4.5%

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

TXRH Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-2.35%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.67%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on enhancing customer experience and menu offerings.
Commitment to maintaining operational efficiency.
Plans to expand into new markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company reports strong same-store sales and manages to control costs effectively, it could lead to a positive market reaction and renewed investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company shows signs of slowing sales growth or rising expenses, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors, reflecting broader concerns in the restaurant industry.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales Growth

4.5%

This metric reflects how well existing locations are performing and is crucial for understanding customer demand.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

N/A

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health this quarter.

Total Revenue

N/A

Revenue growth indicates overall business expansion and customer engagement, which are vital for future growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported same-store sales growth for Q2-2026?

This figure is crucial for assessing customer demand and overall business health, and it will heavily influence market sentiment.

How is Texas Roadhouse managing rising costs and supply chain challenges?

Understanding the company's strategies for cost management will be key to evaluating its profitability and future outlook.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Texas Roadhouse's ability to manage costs effectively while driving sales growth, especially given its strong brand loyalty.

Supporting Evidence

The company's historical performance shows resilience even in challenging economic conditions.

Options pricing indicates a higher expected move than historical averages, suggesting investors anticipate significant news.

Management's previous commitments to enhancing customer experience could lead to stronger sales than expected.

Key Risk

If same-store sales growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to sustain growth amidst rising costs and competitive pressures.

Bull Confirmed If

Same-store sales growth of 5% or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong customer demand.

Bear Confirmed If

If same-store sales growth falls below 3%, it would support the bear case and raise concerns about the company's competitive position.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.27%

Historical Avg

±1.3%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

41.5%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 0.41Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.25%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh the company's commentary on future growth prospects.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential decline of around 0.64%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on same-store sales growth and customer traffic trends.
2Details on cost management strategies and supply chain improvements.
3Any commentary on expansion plans and new market entries.
4Insights into menu innovation and customer engagement initiatives.
5Management's outlook on the competitive landscape and economic conditions.