Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$1.85
EPS est.
$1.90
EPS surprise
-2.73%
1-day move
-0.16%
Texas Roadhouse's earnings report reflects solid revenue growth and strong same-store sales, driven by increased customer traffic and higher average checks. However, the slight miss on EPS and the stock's minor decline of 0.16% suggest that investors may be concerned about ongoing inflation pressures. The company's plans for expansion could position it well for future growth, despite current challenges.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.85 | N/A | -2.73% |
| Revenue | $1.7 billion | N/A | N/A |
| Same-store Sales Growth | 6.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Average Weekly Sales | $175,000 | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed cautious optimism about the company's growth, citing strong same-store sales and plans for expansion. They acknowledged challenges from commodity inflation but adjusted their inflation guidance downwards.
Management noted the increase in average weekly sales is a historic achievement.
They highlighted plans to open approximately 35 new restaurants in 2026.
—
Est. EPS
$1.89
Est. Rev
$705M
Impl. Move
±12.5%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for their steaks and Texas-style hospitality. As a player in the consumer discretionary sector, the company's performance is closely tied to consumer spending trends, making it a key barometer for the restaurant industry.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Texas Roadhouse reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, matching analyst expectations with a slight positive surprise. However, the stock dipped 1.10% the following day, indicating some investor disappointment.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-3.63%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.73%
Overall, analysts expect Texas Roadhouse to deliver steady performance in the upcoming earnings report, with a focus on same-store sales growth and customer spending trends. Investors are particularly attentive to how the company navigates current economic conditions.
Bull case
If Texas Roadhouse reports strong same-store sales growth and an increase in average check size, it could indicate robust consumer demand and lead to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports disappointing sales figures or declining margins, it may raise concerns about its ability to maintain profitability in a competitive environment.
Key metrics to watch
Same-store sales growth
4.5%This metric indicates how well existing restaurants are performing and reflects customer demand.
Average check size
$22.50An increase in average check size can signal that customers are spending more, which is crucial for revenue growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the same-store sales growth be for Q2-2026?
This figure is crucial as it reflects customer demand and overall business health, impacting investor sentiment.
Q2
How has the average check size changed compared to previous quarters?
An increase in average check size can indicate that customers are willing to spend more, which is vital for revenue growth.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate Texas Roadhouse's ability to drive same-store sales growth due to its strong brand loyalty and recent menu innovations.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently shown resilience in consumer spending downturns.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a surprise.
Recent trends in casual dining indicate a shift towards more premium dining experiences, which Texas Roadhouse is well-positioned to capitalize on.
Key risk
If same-store sales growth exceeds 5%, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter centers around consumer spending trends and how they affect restaurant performance.
Bull confirmed if
Same-store sales growth of 5% or better would confirm strong consumer demand and support the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A same-store sales decline or growth below 3% would raise concerns about the company's performance and confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.27%
Historical Avg
±1.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±6.3% while TXRH has averaged ±1.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
41.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.07%
of float
Insider
0.42%
of float
Holders
828
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,588,899 sh · $1.1B
10.04%
-2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Texas Roadhouse beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.29%, confirming a bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management's commentary is cautious, the stock may see limited movement as investors digest the information.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline in stock price, with history suggesting an average drop of 0.64%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$2,002.00–$30,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Operating margin
14.0%Operating margin gives insight into the company's efficiency and profitability, especially in a competitive market.
Capital World Investors
4,339,069 sh · $705.0M
6.61%
-1.0%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
4,082,764 sh · $663.4M
6.22%
12.9%
Alliancebernstein L.P.
3,230,940 sh · $525.0M
4.92%
6.5%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,063,389 sh · $497.7M
4.67%
-0.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 11, 2026 · disclosed Sep 10, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 30, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.