Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$5.2B

May6Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the consumer discretionary sector, which is influenced by consumer spending patterns and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met expectations, but revenue figures were mixed. The stock experienced a slight decline following the earnings report.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to enhancing operational efficiency.
They indicated plans to expand their convenience store network.
Management expressed confidence in maintaining market share despite competitive pressures.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report earnings in line with consensus, with a focus on revenue growth amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds revenue expectations, it could signal strong consumer demand and operational improvements, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses revenue targets, it may raise concerns about market share loss and economic headwinds affecting consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3B?

A revenue beat would indicate stronger consumer demand and operational success, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What are management's expectations for future growth in the convenience store segment?

Insights into growth strategies will help investors gauge the company's long-term potential in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ultrapar's ability to capture market share in the convenience store segment, which could outperform expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Management's previous commitments to expand their convenience store network suggest potential for higher sales.

The current economic climate may favor companies with strong retail operations, like Ultrapar.

Key Risk

If revenue from the convenience store segment shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around whether Ultrapar can sustain growth in a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $37.3B would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue miss below $32.2B would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth prospects.

Miss

A revenue miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.73% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the expansion of the convenience store network.
2Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
3Details on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the automotive retail sector.
5Any commentary on cost management strategies.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the automotive retail sector, focusing on fuel distribution and convenience stores....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$0.13

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met expectations, but revenue figures were mixed. The stock experienced a slight decline following the earnings report.

Management Promises & Guidance

Management committed to enhancing operational efficiency.
They indicated plans to expand their convenience store network.
Management expressed confidence in maintaining market share despite competitive pressures.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report earnings in line with consensus, with a focus on revenue growth amidst a challenging retail environment.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar exceeds revenue expectations, it could signal strong consumer demand and operational improvements, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses revenue targets, it may raise concerns about market share loss and economic headwinds affecting consumer spending.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$37.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will revenue exceed the consensus estimate of $37.3B?

A revenue beat would indicate stronger consumer demand and operational success, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What are management's expectations for future growth in the convenience store segment?

Insights into growth strategies will help investors gauge the company's long-term potential in a competitive market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ultrapar's ability to capture market share in the convenience store segment, which could outperform expectations.

Supporting Evidence

Management's previous commitments to expand their convenience store network suggest potential for higher sales.

The current economic climate may favor companies with strong retail operations, like Ultrapar.

Key Risk

If revenue from the convenience store segment shows unexpected growth, it could challenge the current cautious consensus.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter centers around whether Ultrapar can sustain growth in a challenging retail environment.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue growth exceeding $37.3B would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue miss below $32.2B would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 1.55%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth prospects.

Miss

A revenue miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average drop of 1.73% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the expansion of the convenience store network.
2Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
3Details on operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the automotive retail sector.
5Any commentary on cost management strategies.