Equity Profile

UGP

Ultrapar ParticipaÃ§Ãµes S.A.

Consumer DiscretionaryAutomotive Retail$6.6B

May6Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which are crucial for understanding growth potential.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail. With a market cap of $7 billion, it plays a significant role in the automotive market, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and economic conditions.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met analyst expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted modestly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ultrapar to report earnings in line with consensus estimates, but there is uncertainty regarding revenue growth. Investors are closely watching for any signs of improved sales performance.

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed revenue expectations significantly, it may indicate strong consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if revenue falls short of expectations, it could signal weak market conditions or operational challenges, resulting in a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which are crucial for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported revenue figure for Q1-2026?

Revenue is a critical measure of the company's performance and will indicate how well it is navigating the current market environment.

How does management view consumer demand in the automotive sector?

Management's insights on consumer demand will provide context for the revenue figures and help investors gauge future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth due to strong consumer demand in the automotive sector, which could exceed current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.63% move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with the consensus.

Ultrapar has a history of beating earnings expectations, suggesting that analysts may be too conservative this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on revenue performance and management's outlook on consumer demand, which are critical for the stock's direction.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $40B would confirm strong market demand and operational success.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue below $32B would suggest significant challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 13 of 21 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of +2.2% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.55% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A revenue miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Details on sales performance across different regions.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the automotive retail market.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Ultrapar Participações S.A. is a Brazilian company operating in the consumer discretionary sector, primarily focused on automotive retail....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.13

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which are crucial for understanding growth potential.

$37.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

UGP Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+3.46%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.41%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Ultrapar reported earnings that met analyst expectations, but revenue figures were not disclosed. The stock reacted modestly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ultrapar can exceed revenue expectations significantly, it may indicate strong consumer demand and operational efficiency, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if revenue falls short of expectations, it could signal weak market conditions or operational challenges, resulting in a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.13

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help assess how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$37.3B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand, which are crucial for understanding growth potential.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported revenue figure for Q1-2026?

Revenue is a critical measure of the company's performance and will indicate how well it is navigating the current market environment.

How does management view consumer demand in the automotive sector?

Management's insights on consumer demand will provide context for the revenue figures and help investors gauge future performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth due to strong consumer demand in the automotive sector, which could exceed current expectations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 6.63% move, indicating that traders expect significant volatility, which may not align with the consensus.

Ultrapar has a history of beating earnings expectations, suggesting that analysts may be too conservative this quarter.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in below $32B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on revenue performance and management's outlook on consumer demand, which are critical for the stock's direction.

Bull Confirmed If

Revenue exceeding $40B would confirm strong market demand and operational success.

Bear Confirmed If

Revenue below $32B would suggest significant challenges in the market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±6.63%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility based on the results.

Options are pricing ±6.6% while UGP has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

31.7%

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 8 of 21 (38%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

5.99%

of float

Insider

0.00%

of float

Holders

180

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Naman Capital Ltda
13,687,979 sh · $78.7M
1.23%
-2.8%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ultrapar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.55% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

A revenue miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.73%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends in the automotive sector.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiencies and cost management.
3Details on sales performance across different regions.
4Insights into competitive pressures in the automotive retail market.
5Future guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.