Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Est. EPS
$4.15
Est. revenue
$111.5B
Implied move
±8.4%
EPS beat rate
75%
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is a leading health care company that provides managed health care services. With a market cap of $337 billion, it plays a crucial role in the health care sector, focusing on health insurance and health services, which are increasingly important as the population ages and health care costs rise.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, UnitedHealth reported an EPS of $6.38, significantly beating estimates by 30.90%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.16% the following day.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.32%
Avg 1-day reaction
-6.87%
Analysts expect UnitedHealth to report strong earnings, with a consensus EPS of $4.15. The company has a history of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to positive market reactions.
Bull case
If UnitedHealth beats EPS estimates again, it could signal robust demand for its services and potentially lead to an upward revision of future earnings forecasts.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth prospects, especially given recent volatility in its stock price.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$4.15Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$111.5BTotal revenue reflects the company's overall sales performance and growth, impacting investor sentiment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $4.15?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction, while a miss could raise concerns about future growth.
Q2
What guidance or commentary will management provide regarding revenue growth?
Insights into revenue growth will be critical, especially in light of recent fluctuations in the stock price and market expectations.
—
Est. EPS
$0.33
Est. Rev
$18.9B
Impl. Move
±7.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for UnitedHealth to exceed EPS estimates due to its recent strong performance and market position.
Supporting evidence
UnitedHealth has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last two quarters, indicating strong operational momentum.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive surprise.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS below $4.00, it could undermine confidence in its growth narrative.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results are pivotal as they will determine if UnitedHealth can maintain its growth trajectory amidst market uncertainties.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $4.30 or better would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $4.00 would signal potential issues with growth and profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.45%
Historical Avg
±9.0%
The options market is pricing in an 8.45% move, indicating that investors anticipate significant volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.4% while UNH has averaged ±9.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
18.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of -0.6% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
89.63%
of float
Insider
0.25%
of float
Holders
4,341
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
76,863,061 sh · $28.9B
8.56%
4.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If UnitedHealth beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.19% the following day, confirming strong demand for its services.
In line / cautious
If results are in line, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential drop of about 14.92%, raising concerns about its growth prospects.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
8
3 buys·5 sells
Members
6
House + Senate
Est. Notional
$22,008.00–$155,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
59,311,525 sh · $22.3B
6.61%
0.8%
State Street Corporation
45,633,267 sh · $17.2B
5.08%
0.7%
Capital World Investors
29,887,932 sh · $11.2B
3.33%
7.6%
FMR, LLC
27,992,995 sh · $10.5B
3.12%
132.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net selling
2 trades
Mixed
1 trade
Net selling
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Sep 10, 2026 · disclosed Sep 25, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Jul 17, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 12, 2026 · disclosed Jul 9, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 4, 2026 · disclosed Jul 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.