Equity Profile

VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders$49.2B

May7Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its energy products and services.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a major player in the energy market, it plays a critical role in providing electricity and managing energy resources, which is increasingly important as the world shifts towards renewable energy sources.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Vistra reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. This continued a trend of volatility in their earnings performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company's history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in their operational efficiency and market demand.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its energy products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Vistra report compared to the expected $5.7 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand and the company's market position, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Vistra to leverage its energy trading capabilities to offset operational challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 14.42% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's recovery potential.

Historical data shows that Vistra has previously rebounded strongly after earnings misses, suggesting potential for a surprise.

The lack of recent insider activity could imply that management is confident in the upcoming results.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $1.00, it could shift the narrative significantly, challenging the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can stabilize its earnings after a history of misses, with significant implications for future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3% based on historical patterns, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
2Insights into energy trading performance and market conditions.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and demand trends.
4Comments on regulatory impacts and renewable energy initiatives.
5Details on any changes in capital expenditure plans.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

May4

FANGReported

Diamondback Energy, Inc.

RecapView

May4

OSISReported

Company Snapshot

Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

0.86

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its energy products and services.

5.7B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

VST Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 7Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-30.60%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.85%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Vistra reported disappointing earnings, missing analyst expectations significantly. This continued a trend of volatility in their earnings performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Vistra's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest recovery in EPS and revenue. However, the company's history of earnings misses raises concerns.

Bull Case

If Vistra can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround in their operational efficiency and market demand.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses again, it could lead to further declines in stock price and investor confidence, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

0.86

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.

Revenue

5.7B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and demand for its energy products and services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?

A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What revenue figures will Vistra report compared to the expected $5.7 billion?

Revenue performance is crucial for assessing demand and the company's market position, impacting future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Vistra to leverage its energy trading capabilities to offset operational challenges.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 14.42% move, indicating significant uncertainty that may not align with the company's recovery potential.

Historical data shows that Vistra has previously rebounded strongly after earnings misses, suggesting potential for a surprise.

The lack of recent insider activity could imply that management is confident in the upcoming results.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in above $1.00, it could shift the narrative significantly, challenging the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Vistra can stabilize its earnings after a history of misses, with significant implications for future growth.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±14.42%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating uncertainty surrounding the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.6%

30d HV

53.9%

Calls (683K)P/C Ratio: 0.60Puts (366K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Mixed flows

Institutional

92.70%

of float

Insider

0.80%

of float

Holders

1,748

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Vanguard Group Inc
41,588,784 sh · $6.8B
12.28%
0.9%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.5%, confirming a positive trend.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3% based on historical patterns, further shaking investor confidence.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies or cost management strategies.
2Insights into energy trading performance and market conditions.
3Management's outlook on future revenue growth and demand trends.
4Comments on regulatory impacts and renewable energy initiatives.
5Details on any changes in capital expenditure plans.