Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, May 7, 2026
Est. EPS
$0.86
Est. revenue
$5.7B
Implied move
±14.4%
EPS beat rate
0%
Vistra Corp. (VST) operates in the utilities sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading. As a significant player in the energy market, its performance can be influenced by factors such as energy demand, regulatory changes, and market prices for electricity and gas.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Vistra Corp. faced challenges that led to a significant EPS miss. The company did not provide specific guidance, leaving investors uncertain about future performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
0%
Avg EPS surprise
-30.60%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.85%
Analysts expect Vistra to report an EPS of $0.86 and revenue of $5.7 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery or continued struggles.
Bull case
If Vistra can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may signal a turnaround in operational efficiency and market conditions.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports a loss or lower-than-expected revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the energy market and lead to a negative reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.86Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and can affect investor sentiment.
Revenue
$5.7BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's overall business performance and growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Vistra's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.86?
A positive EPS surprise could indicate improved operational performance and boost investor confidence.
Q2
What factors contributed to revenue expectations of $5.7 billion?
Understanding revenue drivers will help assess the company's growth potential and market position.
Est. EPS
$3.70
Est. Rev
$3.9B
Impl. Move
±4.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a revenue surprise, as recent energy demand trends suggest a stronger recovery than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options pricing indicates a larger expected move than historical averages, suggesting heightened uncertainty.
Insider selling activity could reflect a lack of confidence in near-term performance, which may not align with broader market trends.
Key risk
If revenue exceeds $6 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Vistra can recover from previous misses and capitalize on favorable market conditions.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.50 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing struggles in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.42%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±14.4% while VST has averaged ±2.5% over the last 7 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
53.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities
Fade rate: 13 of 30 (43%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 13 of 30 faded and 17 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.2%, with a raw directional average of -1.2% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.6M
22,222 sh
1 insider
Net
$3.6M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$3.6M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
92.02%
of float
Insider
0.78%
of float
Holders
1,880
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
29,064,465 sh · $4.8B
8.66%
2.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Vistra beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3%, confirming a positive trend.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 3% based on historical reactions, reflecting ongoing concerns.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 6, 2026 · @ $160.14
22,222 sh
$3.6M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
21,393,858 sh · $3.6B
6.37%
Flat
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
16,939,291 sh · $2.8B
5.05%
0.2%
State Street Corporation
16,850,452 sh · $2.8B
5.02%
0.5%
FMR, LLC
14,160,202 sh · $2.4B
4.22%
-10.4%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.