Equity Profile

YPF

YPF Sociedad AnÃ³nima

EnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas$20.8B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

YPF Sociedad Anónima is a major player in the energy sector, focusing on integrated oil and gas operations. With a market cap of $20 billion, the company plays a crucial role in energy production and supply, which is significant given the ongoing global energy transition and the demand for reliable energy sources.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well YPF is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, YPF reported an EPS of $1.03, exceeding expectations by nearly 25%. However, the stock fell slightly the next day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the positive earnings surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about YPF's upcoming earnings, especially after the surprise in the last quarter. However, there is uncertainty due to the company's inconsistent earnings history.

Bull Case

If YPF can maintain or improve its profitability, driven by strong production levels and favorable market conditions, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining production levels, it could lead to further stock declines, given its recent history of earnings misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the production levels for the current quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for investors.

How does YPF plan to manage costs in the current economic environment?

Cost management will be crucial for maintaining profitability, especially in a volatile energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating YPF's ability to stabilize production levels despite recent volatility in the energy market. Given the company's recent positive EPS surprise, there is potential for continued improvement.

Supporting Evidence

YPF's recent earnings surprise of +24.85% indicates potential operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a significant expected move, which could reflect investor optimism.

The company's historical performance shows that it can rebound from earnings misses.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below expectations, it could undermine the positive narrative and lead to a reassessment of the stock's value.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and cost management, which are essential for sustaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.93%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Energy in the last 2 years. 24 of 30 (80%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -1.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock move of +2.22%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary against historical performance.

Miss

If YPF misses expectations, the stock could drop by an average of -1.30%, reflecting ongoing concerns about its earnings consistency.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes in operational capacity.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to market conditions.
3Any guidance on future earnings expectations or market outlook.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas products.
5Commentary on geopolitical factors affecting the energy sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well YPF is managing its costs and revenues.

N/A

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

YPF Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-52.58%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.02%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If YPF can maintain or improve its profitability, driven by strong production levels and favorable market conditions, it could see significant stock appreciation.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining production levels, it could lead to further stock declines, given its recent history of earnings misses.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What are the production levels for the current quarter?

Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for investors.

How does YPF plan to manage costs in the current economic environment?

Cost management will be crucial for maintaining profitability, especially in a volatile energy market.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

Supporting Evidence

YPF's recent earnings surprise of +24.85% indicates potential operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a significant expected move, which could reflect investor optimism.

The company's historical performance shows that it can rebound from earnings misses.

Key Risk

If production levels come in below expectations, it could undermine the positive narrative and lead to a reassessment of the stock's value.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and cost management, which are essential for sustaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A production increase of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A production decrease of more than 5% would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.93%

Historical Avg

±2.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±22.7% while YPF has averaged ±2.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

44.4%

Calls (769K)P/C Ratio: 0.56Puts (25K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Energy

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 30 (20%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If YPF beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock move of +2.22%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors weigh management's commentary against historical performance.

Miss

If YPF misses expectations, the stock could drop by an average of -1.30%, reflecting ongoing concerns about its earnings consistency.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on production levels and any changes in operational capacity.
2Details on cost management strategies in response to market conditions.
3Any guidance on future earnings expectations or market outlook.
4Insights into market demand for oil and gas products.
5Commentary on geopolitical factors affecting the energy sector.