Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 13, 2026
EPS actual
$0.11
EPS est.
$0.09
EPS surprise
+29.41%
1-day move
-29.18%
Cellebrite's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS expectations, which likely contributed to the sharp decline in stock price. Investors may be concerned about the lack of revenue details and forward guidance, leading to uncertainty about the company's future performance. The stock's 29.18% drop reflects these concerns and the overall market reaction to disappointing earnings.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.11 | $0.16 | -29.41% |
| Revenue | — | $146M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that aids law enforcement and security agencies in digital investigations. As digital crime rises, Cellebrite's technology is increasingly relevant, making it a key player in the intersection of technology and public safety.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Cellebrite reported an EPS of $0.12, significantly surpassing expectations of $0.07, resulting in an 8.43% stock increase the following day. The company continues to demonstrate strong performance, maintaining a perfect record of EPS beats.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+49.68%
Avg 1-day reaction
-4.88%
Analysts expect Cellebrite to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $146M. Given the company's track record of beating earnings estimates, there is cautious optimism among investors.
Bull case
If Cellebrite exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and market competitiveness, leading to a potential decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.16Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$146MRevenue growth is essential to assess the company's ability to expand its market presence and sustain operations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.16?
A higher EPS would reinforce the company's growth narrative and could lead to a positive market reaction.
Q2
What specific revenue growth figures can management provide?
Understanding revenue growth will help investors assess the company's market position and future prospects.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±51.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the demand for Cellebrite's digital intelligence solutions, particularly in light of increasing cyber threats that necessitate advanced investigative tools.
Supporting evidence
Cellebrite has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger than anticipated demand.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors expect more volatility than the consensus reflects.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly exceeds expectations, it could shift the narrative towards a more bullish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will indicate whether the company can maintain its growth trajectory amid increasing competition.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.17 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $148M, would confirm strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.14 or revenue falling short of $144M would raise concerns about the company's growth and profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±28.68%
Historical Avg
±9.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating heightened volatility expectations surrounding the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±28.7% while CLBT has averaged ±9.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
56.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Cellebrite beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7% on the following day, confirming strong demand.
In line / cautious
An inline report may lead to a muted reaction, as investors await further clarity on future growth prospects.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, the stock could decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.31% following such events.
The lines on the call that would change the story.