Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
EPS actual
$3.61
EPS est.
$6.54
EPS surprise
-44.76%
1-day move
-1.08%
Nexstar Media Group's earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS, which likely contributed to the stock's decline of 1.08%. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance given the lack of revenue data and guidance. The substantial EPS miss indicates potential challenges ahead for the company.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.61 | N/A | -44.76% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a leading media company that operates television stations and provides content across various platforms. As a major player in the broadcasting sector, it plays a crucial role in delivering news, entertainment, and sports to audiences, which is particularly relevant as consumer media consumption continues to evolve.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Nexstar reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.09, exceeding expectations by 6.49%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 1.36% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the earnings beat.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-37.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
+2.23%
Overall, expectations for Nexstar's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the mixed results from previous quarters. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement in advertising revenue and viewership.
Bull case
If Nexstar can demonstrate strong growth in advertising revenue and improved viewership ratings, it could signal a robust recovery, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports disappointing advertising revenue or declining viewership, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and lead to a negative response from investors.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the advertising revenue growth rate this quarter?
Advertising revenue is critical for Nexstar's profitability, and any significant change could impact investor confidence.
Q2
How have viewership ratings changed compared to last quarter?
Viewership ratings directly influence advertising rates, and a decline could signal challenges in maintaining revenue.
—
Est. EPS
$3.08
Est. Rev
$7.2B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Nexstar to capitalize on digital advertising growth, which could offset traditional revenue declines.
Supporting evidence
Recent trends indicate a shift toward digital platforms, which Nexstar is positioned to leverage.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historically realized, indicating potential for upside surprise.
Management's previous commitments to enhancing digital offerings may not be fully reflected in current consensus.
Key risk
If advertising revenue exceeds expectations significantly, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on advertising revenue and viewership metrics, which are critical for Nexstar's financial health.
Bull confirmed if
Advertising revenue growth of +10% YoY or better would confirm a strong recovery in demand.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in viewership ratings below last quarter's levels would confirm concerns about competitive pressures.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.27%
Historical Avg
±4.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 5%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±5.3% while NXST has averaged ±4.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
29.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Communication Services
Fade rate: 13 of 28 (46%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Communication Services in the last 2 years. 13 of 28 faded and 15 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +2.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
102.38%
of float
Insider
6.69%
of float
Holders
648
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
3,358,210 sh · $530.8M
10.90%
4.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Nexstar beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.91% on the first day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
A cautious but in-line report may lead to muted reactions, with the stock potentially moving sideways as investors digest the results.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.28%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
1,431,230 sh · $226.2M
4.65%
3.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,427,362 sh · $225.6M
4.63%
-0.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,302,020 sh · $205.8M
4.23%
1.3%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
1,082,163 sh · $171.0M
3.51%
9.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.