Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.1B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans and other real estate-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

$0.41

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.

$521M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans and other real estate-related assets. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the mortgage REIT industry, which is influenced by interest rates and real estate market trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Starwood reported an EPS of $0.39, slightly below the expected $0.40, leading to a stock decline of 1.66% the following day. The company did not provide revenue estimates for that quarter.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Starwood to report an EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $521 million for Q2-2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of improvement in earnings and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Starwood beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and a solid investment strategy, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS expectations or shows stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current economic environment, leading to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.41

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

$521M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Starwood's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.41?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability, which would be a positive signal for investors.

What insights will management provide on revenue growth trends?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects steady earnings, the market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Starwood's mortgage portfolio, which could lead to lower profitability.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.37% move, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.

Starwood's recent earnings history shows a trend of missing estimates, which could continue if economic conditions worsen.

Key Risk

If EPS falls below $0.27, it would challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Starwood can maintain profitability amidst changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.44 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.27 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.84% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.21% the next day, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage performance.
2Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
3Details on any new investments or asset acquisitions.
4Insights into the company's risk management strategies.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the mortgage REIT sector.

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Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in mortgage loans and other real estate-related assets....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

$0.41

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.

$521M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Starwood to report an EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $521 million for Q2-2026. The market is watching closely for any signs of improvement in earnings and revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Starwood beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and a solid investment strategy, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.41

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its investments.

Revenue

$521M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's overall financial health and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Starwood's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.41?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger than expected profitability, which would be a positive signal for investors.

What insights will management provide on revenue growth trends?

Understanding revenue trends is crucial for assessing the company's future performance and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects steady earnings, the market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on Starwood's mortgage portfolio, which could lead to lower profitability.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing in an 8.37% move, suggesting higher volatility than historical averages.

Starwood's recent earnings history shows a trend of missing estimates, which could continue if economic conditions worsen.

Key Risk

If EPS falls below $0.27, it would challenge the current optimistic outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's earnings report is critical as it will reveal whether Starwood can maintain profitability amidst changing market conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.44 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.27 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.84% on the following day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.21% the next day, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the impact of interest rates on mortgage performance.
2Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
3Details on any new investments or asset acquisitions.
4Insights into the company's risk management strategies.
5Comments on competitive pressures in the mortgage REIT sector.