Equity Profile

STWD

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$6.1B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue trends provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand for its mortgage products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on originating, acquiring, and managing commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related investments. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in mortgage financing, which is crucial for the real estate market's health.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Starwood reported an EPS of $0.39, slightly missing the estimate of $0.40, leading to a stock decline of 1.66% the following day. The company continues to navigate a challenging market environment with ongoing uncertainties in the real estate sector.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Starwood's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors hoping for signs of recovery in loan origination and profitability. The lack of analyst estimates adds to the uncertainty surrounding the company's performance.

Bull Case

If Starwood can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its EPS, it may signal a rebound in demand for its mortgage products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the real estate market, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the loan origination volume for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's growth potential and ability to generate revenue in the current market environment.

How does management view the current state of the real estate market?

Management's insights on market conditions will help investors gauge future performance and the company's strategic direction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in loan origination volumes, which could significantly impact Starwood's earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.37% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

Starwood's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a stronger likelihood of positive surprises than currently anticipated.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to navigate a challenging real estate market and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan origination volume increase of over 15% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in EPS below $0.35 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8% in either direction, suggesting heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.84%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain relatively flat as investors digest the information.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.21%, indicating ongoing struggles in the mortgage market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume and trends in the mortgage market.
2Management's outlook on the real estate sector and potential challenges.
3Details on any strategic initiatives or changes in investment focus.
4Insights into the company's risk management practices in the current economic climate.
5Comments on capital allocation and future dividend policies.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue trends provide insight into the company's operational performance and market demand for its mortgage products.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

STWD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-3.64%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.07%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Starwood can demonstrate strong loan origination and maintain or improve its EPS, it may signal a rebound in demand for its mortgage products, boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings or revenue, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the real estate market, leading to a further decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the loan origination volume for Q2-2026?

This figure will be crucial in assessing the company's growth potential and ability to generate revenue in the current market environment.

How does management view the current state of the real estate market?

Management's insights on market conditions will help investors gauge future performance and the company's strategic direction.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in loan origination volumes, which could significantly impact Starwood's earnings this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.37% move, indicating expectations of volatility that may not align with the company's actual performance.

Starwood's historical EPS beat rate of 63% suggests a stronger likelihood of positive surprises than currently anticipated.

Key Risk

If loan origination volume exceeds expectations, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings forecasts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to navigate a challenging real estate market and maintain profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

A loan origination volume increase of over 15% year-over-year would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A decline in EPS below $0.35 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.37%

Historical Avg

±1.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 8% in either direction, suggesting heightened uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.

Options are pricing ±8.4% while STWD has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

17.5%

Calls (56K)P/C Ratio: 0.35Puts (109K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Starwood beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.84%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may remain relatively flat as investors digest the information.

Miss

A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of about 1.21%, indicating ongoing struggles in the mortgage market.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan origination volume and trends in the mortgage market.
2Management's outlook on the real estate sector and potential challenges.
3Details on any strategic initiatives or changes in investment focus.
4Insights into the company's risk management practices in the current economic climate.
5Comments on capital allocation and future dividend policies.