Equity Profile

USFD

US Foods Holding Corp.

Consumer StaplesFood Distributors$22.3B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major player in the food distribution sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, and other foodservice operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and efficiency, reflecting how much profit is attributed to each share of stock.

$0.80

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain competitiveness in the food distribution industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major player in the food distribution sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, and other foodservice operations. As a part of the consumer staples sector, the company is influenced by trends in consumer spending and food service demand, making its performance relevant to investors tracking the health of the broader economy.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, US Foods reported an EPS of $0.78, which was a positive surprise compared to the expected $0.75. However, the stock declined by 5.62% the following day, indicating market concerns despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiencies.
Commitment to expanding product offerings.
Plans to enhance customer service and delivery capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect US Foods to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, but there are concerns about revenue growth and market conditions affecting profitability.

Bull Case

If US Foods can demonstrate strong revenue growth alongside improved margins, it could signal robust demand in the food service sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of margin compression, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.80

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and efficiency, reflecting how much profit is attributed to each share of stock.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain competitiveness in the food distribution industry.

Gross Margin

N/A

Gross margin indicates the efficiency of production and pricing strategies, which are vital for maintaining profitability in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and ability to capitalize on consumer demand in the food service sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating US Foods' ability to capitalize on the recovery in the food service sector, particularly given its strong operational history.

Supporting Evidence

US Foods has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in consumer spending on dining out could benefit US Foods more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether US Foods can sustain its growth trajectory amid competitive pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bullish sentiment and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 could signal underlying issues with profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.8% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.75%, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 4.39% based on historical reactions, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Details on customer demand trends in the food service sector.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning and market share gains.

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Company Snapshot

US Foods Holding Corp. is a major player in the food distribution sector, providing a wide range of food products to restaurants, healthcare facilities, and other foodservice operations....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and efficiency, reflecting how much profit is attributed to each share of stock.

$0.80

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain competitiveness in the food distribution industry.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

USFD Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.33%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving operational efficiencies.
Commitment to expanding product offerings.
Plans to enhance customer service and delivery capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, analysts expect US Foods to continue its trend of beating EPS estimates, but there are concerns about revenue growth and market conditions affecting profitability.

Bull Case

If US Foods can demonstrate strong revenue growth alongside improved margins, it could signal robust demand in the food service sector, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of margin compression, it could lead to a significant decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0.80

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and efficiency, reflecting how much profit is attributed to each share of stock.

Revenue Growth

N/A

Revenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's ability to expand its market share and maintain competitiveness in the food distribution industry.

Gross Margin

N/A

Gross margin indicates the efficiency of production and pricing strategies, which are vital for maintaining profitability in a competitive market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the company's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.

How is revenue growth trending compared to previous quarters?

Revenue growth is essential for assessing the company's market position and ability to capitalize on consumer demand in the food service sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating US Foods' ability to capitalize on the recovery in the food service sector, particularly given its strong operational history.

Supporting Evidence

US Foods has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating strong management execution.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Recent trends in consumer spending on dining out could benefit US Foods more than anticipated.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the cautious outlook currently held by analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether US Foods can sustain its growth trajectory amid competitive pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bullish sentiment and indicate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 could signal underlying issues with profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.47%

Historical Avg

±4.4%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a relatively large move, suggesting that traders expect significant volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±5.5% while USFD has averaged ±4.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

28.9%

Calls (500)P/C Ratio: 49.00Puts (59K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If US Foods beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.75%, confirming the company's strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 4.39% based on historical reactions, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on operational efficiencies and cost management strategies.
2Details on customer demand trends in the food service sector.
3Insights into supply chain challenges and how they are being addressed.
4Management's outlook on future revenue growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive positioning and market share gains.